TimS comments on Terminal Bias - Less Wrong
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Comments (125)
"Risk Aversion," as a technical term, means that the utility function is concave with respect to its input, like in thelittledoctor's example. I think you're thinking of something else, like the certainty effect. But I don't know of anyone who considers the certainty effect to be a terminal goal rather than an instrumental one (woo, I don't have to compute probabilities!).
And we should be proper utilitarians... why?
Then we have evidence they will strike again.
Does that exist? My impression is that violent criminals often have suffered head injuries, not just poor upbringings.
Even if it does exist, and we have a way to restore people to normalcy, are there strong game theoretic reasons to? There could still be calculated defections, which we should attempt to deter by punishing violent crime. The rehab program also seems far more useful before crimes happen, rather than after.
It seems like it depends on whether or not we can easily distinguish between "irrational" crime and calculated defections. In the current world, we can't, so there are game-theoretic reasons to justify similar treatment. But if we could relatively reliably differentiate, it seems like a large waste of resources avoid a cheap treatment that reduces the risk of future irrational crime to negligible levels. And I suspect that's true even if our test was only 75% accurate at telling the difference between "irrational" criminals and calculated defections.
That's an interesting impression to have. Not that I know any better, but I'm doubtful of the reliability of any data because it is irrelevant to the US legal system (except for insanity type defenses, and mitigation in death penalty litigation).
Yep. But I don't see significant reason to expect detection systems to outpace tricking systems.
25 to 87% of inmates report suffering a head injury, compared to 8.5% of the general population. The high variation in reports suggests that the data isn't the best quality / most general, but with the most conservative estimate prevalence is at three times higher.