TimS comments on Terminal Bias - Less Wrong

18 [deleted] 30 January 2012 09:03PM

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Comment author: Vaniver 31 January 2012 01:05:45AM 11 points [-]

For a rational agent with goals that don't include "being averse to risk", risk aversion is a bias. The correct decision theory acts on expected utility, with utility of outcomes and probability of outcomes factored apart and calculated separately. Risk aversion does not factor them.

"Risk Aversion," as a technical term, means that the utility function is concave with respect to its input, like in thelittledoctor's example. I think you're thinking of something else, like the certainty effect. But I don't know of anyone who considers the certainty effect to be a terminal goal rather than an instrumental one (woo, I don't have to compute probabilities!).

A proper utilitarian would feel approximately the same desire to do something about each

And we should be proper utilitarians... why?

what if we discover, for example, that some murders are not calculated defections, but failures of self control caused by a bad upbringing and lack of education.

Then we have evidence they will strike again.

What if we then further discover that there is a two-month training course that has a high success rate of turning murderers into productive members of society.

Does that exist? My impression is that violent criminals often have suffered head injuries, not just poor upbringings.

Even if it does exist, and we have a way to restore people to normalcy, are there strong game theoretic reasons to? There could still be calculated defections, which we should attempt to deter by punishing violent crime. The rehab program also seems far more useful before crimes happen, rather than after.

Comment author: TimS 31 January 2012 02:38:26AM 0 points [-]

Even if it does exist, and we have a way to restore people to normalcy, are there strong game theoretic reasons to?

It seems like it depends on whether or not we can easily distinguish between "irrational" crime and calculated defections. In the current world, we can't, so there are game-theoretic reasons to justify similar treatment. But if we could relatively reliably differentiate, it seems like a large waste of resources avoid a cheap treatment that reduces the risk of future irrational crime to negligible levels. And I suspect that's true even if our test was only 75% accurate at telling the difference between "irrational" criminals and calculated defections.

My impression is that violent criminals often have suffered head injuries, not just poor upbringings.

That's an interesting impression to have. Not that I know any better, but I'm doubtful of the reliability of any data because it is irrelevant to the US legal system (except for insanity type defenses, and mitigation in death penalty litigation).

Comment author: Vaniver 31 January 2012 04:14:55AM 3 points [-]

But if we could relatively reliably differentiate, it seems like a large waste of resources avoid a cheap treatment that reduces the risk of future irrational crime to negligible levels.

Yep. But I don't see significant reason to expect detection systems to outpace tricking systems.

I'm doubtful of the reliability of any data

25 to 87% of inmates report suffering a head injury, compared to 8.5% of the general population. The high variation in reports suggests that the data isn't the best quality / most general, but with the most conservative estimate prevalence is at three times higher.