Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Extreme Rationality: It's Not That Great - Less Wrong

140 Post author: Yvain 09 April 2009 02:44AM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 09 April 2009 11:54:06AM 7 points [-]

Would Newton have gone even further if he'd known Bayes theory? Probably it would've been like telling the world pool champion to try using more calculus in his shots: not a pretty sight.

An interesting choice of example, given that Bayesian probability theory as we know it (inverse inference) was more or less invented by Laplace and used to address specific astronomical controversies surrounding the introduction of Newton's Laws, having to do with combining multiple uncertain observations.