NancyLebovitz comments on Rationality Quotes February 2012 - Less Wrong

5 [deleted] 01 February 2012 09:03PM

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Comment author: NancyLebovitz 01 February 2012 04:50:16PM *  22 points [-]

I may say that this is the greatest factor—the way in which the expedition is equipped—the way in which every difficulty is foreseen, and precautions taken for meeting or avoiding it. Victory awaits him who has everything in order — luck, people call it. Defeat is certain for him who has neglected to take the necessary precautions in time; this is called bad luck.

— from *The South Pole* by Roald Amundsen
Comment author: MixedNuts 03 February 2012 11:55:35AM 8 points [-]

Yeah, but that's not very useful to tell when you're taking sensible precautions and when you're just packing cans of shark repellent.

Comment author: Endovior 08 February 2012 10:44:43PM 3 points [-]

Not necessarily. Note that you take precautions because you foresee difficulties. If you intend to go diving in shark-infested waters... or, indeed, any body of water that might conceivably host sharks... then considering that fact in advance, purchasing shark repellent, and having it on-hand during the dive is totally sensible. If you're going to the South Pole instead, then shark repellent is worse then useless; it's presence will serve merely as additional weight to hinder your progress. The difference is, as the quote suggests, a question of whether you're preparing because you've carefully considered the situation in advance, and determined that the preparation in question is necessary to your task... or whether you don't really have a solid idea of why you'd need to do a given thing, but it seems like something that might be useful for a reason you haven't considered carefully enough to describe in words.