Isn't it a common-place of forecasting (and chaos theory in particular) that short-term projections can be terribly inaccurate, even while long-term forecasting can be extremely accurate?
and chaos theory in particular
Chaos theory often points in the opposite direction. For example, consider weather simulations which become worse than careful ignorance after 5 days- slight variations in initial conditions (and multiplication roundoff errors in computation, and so on) grow out of control, and soon the system is less accurate than just saying "it rains 20% of the time in general; 6 days from now, there is a 20% chance of rain."
...that short-term projections can be terribly inaccurate, even while long-term forecasting can be extrem
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