By the way, I think Luke's conclusion may be wrong, and this could be the book to take Bayes mainstream. I thought this after reading this interview with Carrier. In it, Carrier says that part of what his book tries to do is to introduce the reader to Bayesian thinking and - and this is the good bit - teach them how to ascertain the argumentative quality of people who disagree in claimed Bayesian analyses.

Luke, does the book contain said parts, and are they actually good and readable? Assume you'd only ever vaguely heard about this Bayes stuff.

Using a topic as hideously contentious as the historicity of Jesus strikes me as a brilliant move - the scholars will know Carrier knows his stuff, the skepticsphere will trumpet the book far and wide, the churches will absolutely shit ... someone might even read the book in between denouncing it. In any case, the word "Bayes", still all but unknown in the wider world, will achieve circulation as another signifier of the Enlightenment.