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David_Gerard comments on One last roll of the dice - Less Wrong
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Asserting that qualia are ontologically basic appears to be assuming that an aspect of mind is ontologically basic, i.e. dualism. So it's only not having done the logical chain myself that would let me set a a probability (a statement of my uncertainty) on it at all, rather than just saying "contradiction".
There's also a (not really low) possibility that you are misinterpreting the question (i.e. understanding it in a way different from intended).
Also (but not importantly) there's a possibility that there's no such thing as “matter” and therefore dualism is false (and, as a particular case of that — “(strong) solipsism” — qualia are ontologically basic)..
Also, a question in the adjacent thread (http://lesswrong.com/lw/9rb/one_last_roll_of_the_dice/5tox), if you don't mind answering.