orthonormal comments on Is Sunk Cost Fallacy a Fallacy? - Less Wrong

19 Post author: gwern 04 February 2012 04:33AM

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Comment author: orthonormal 06 February 2012 05:42:43PM 5 points [-]

Wait a second:

Arkes & Ayton cite 2 studies finding that committing sunk cost bias increases with age - as in, children do not commit it.

Information is worth most to those who have the least: as we previously saw, the young commit sunk cost more than the old

These are in direct contradiction with each other. What gives?

Comment author: gwern 06 February 2012 11:15:30PM *  0 points [-]

They are in contradiction, but the latter claim is supported by the large second paragraph in the children (the section that 'previously saw' was linking to) where I quote the criticism of the 2 studies and then list 5 studies which find either that children do commit it on questions or that avoidance increases over lifetimes, which to me seem to override the 2 studies.

Comment author: orthonormal 07 February 2012 01:56:31AM *  0 points [-]

Ah. Can I suggest you re-write that section to make it clearer? I admit I wasn't reading closely, but I assumed that a two-line statement before a quote from a paper was going to be the conclusion of the section.

Also, given that the evidence there is far from unidirectional, I'd rather you didn't cite it as the first piece of supporting evidence for the "gaining information" hypothesis. I expect an argument to start with its strongest pieces of evidence first.

P.S. I'm not sure I agree with your argument, but thanks for putting this together!

Comment author: gwern 07 February 2012 04:20:10AM *  0 points [-]

I already modified it; hopefully the new version is clearer.

Also, given that the evidence there is far from unidirectional, I'd rather you didn't cite it as the first piece of supporting evidence for the "gaining information" hypothesis. I expect an argument to start with its strongest pieces of evidence first.

I was going in what I thought was logical implication order of the learning hypothesis.