ChristianKl comments on Is Sunk Cost Fallacy a Fallacy? - Less Wrong

19 Post author: gwern 04 February 2012 04:33AM

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Comment author: gwern 04 February 2012 07:51:12PM 1 point [-]

IMO, the Concorde justifications are transparent rationalizations - if you want research, buy research. It'd be pretty odd if you could buy more research by not buying research but commercial products... In any case, I mention Concorde because it's such a famous example and because a bunch of papers call it the Concorde effect.

I agree with your analysis that sunk cost is useful to counter other biases.

I'm not terribly confident in that claim; it might be that one suffers them both simultaneously. I had to resort to anecdotes and speculation for that section; it's intuitively appealing, but we all know that means little without hard data.

I didn't think about the part of young children not committing it, but now that you pointed to studies showing it, it makes perfect sense (and is compatible with my own personal observation of young relatives).

Yeah. I was quite surprised when I ran into Arkes's claim - it certainly didn't match my memories of being a kid! - and kept a close eye out thenceforth for studies which might bear on it.

Comment author: ChristianKl 26 October 2014 06:15:54PM 0 points [-]

IMO, the Concorde justifications are transparent rationalizations - if you want research, buy research. It'd be pretty odd if you could buy more research by not buying research but commercial products... In any case, I mention Concorde because it's such a famous example and because a bunch of papers call it the Concorde effect.

It really depends on your view of academics. If you think that if you hand them a pile of money they just invest it into playing status games with each other, giving them a clear measurable outcome to provides feedback around which they have to structure their research could be helpful.