Jiro comments on Is Sunk Cost Fallacy a Fallacy? - Less Wrong

19 Post author: gwern 04 February 2012 04:33AM

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Comment author: Jiro 03 November 2014 12:25:40AM 0 points [-]

Saying that costs and side effects aren't worth something is very different than saying it doesn't work and produces no effect.

No, they're not very different at all. In fact they are directly related. Saying that costs and side effects are too great means that costs and side effects are too great for the benefit you get. If there is some probability that the study is bad and there is no benefit, that gets factored into this comparison; the greater the probability that the study is bad, the more the costs and side effects tip the balance against getting the treatment.

Cochrane meta studies have a reputation that's good enough that even venues like RationalWiki accept it when it comes to conclusions that they don't like.

You didn't say that everyone accepts it. You said that everyone who cares about evidence accepts it. This is equivalent to "the people who don't accept it don't count because their opinions are not really based on evidence". Likewise, now you're claiming "any good evidence-based source" will say that it works. Again, this is a No True Scotsman fallacy; you're saying that anyone who disagrees can't really be an evidence-based source.

Comment author: Strange7 03 November 2014 01:30:49PM 1 point [-]

It's only a No True Scotsman if you can point to an actual citizen of Scotland who doesn't meet the 'true Scotsman' standard.

You are conflating two claims here. One is that chiropractic is more expensive than conventional treatments for lower back pain, and the other is that chiropractic is less effective than conventional treatments for lower back pain. What support do you have for the latter claim?

Comment author: Jiro 03 November 2014 05:12:18PM -1 points [-]

I covered that:

Saying that costs and side effects are too great means that costs and side effects are too great for the benefit you get. If there is some probability that the study is bad and there is no benefit, that gets factored into this comparison; the greater the probability that the study is bad, the more the costs and side effects tip the balance against getting the treatment.

Comment author: Strange7 03 November 2014 07:33:50PM 1 point [-]

If there was some non-negligible probability that the study was bad, RationalWiki would, given their dislike for chiropractics, have seized upon that and discussed it explicitly, would they not?

Comment author: Jiro 07 November 2014 09:39:59PM 0 points [-]

They describe the Cochrane study as "weak evidence" that chiropractic is as effective as other therapy. This implicitly includes some non-negligible probability that the benefit is less than the study seems to say it is.