Comment on Bayesian RPG system?

Wed, 08 Feb 2012 18:33:53 GMT

A clearer example might be that of a bonus which halves your chance of failure changing 80% success likelihood to 90% success (20% failure to 10% failure)

The problem with this is it only makes sense when you have a high chance of success.

Suppose I attempted to blow up the Earth. Normally, I'd have an approximately 0% chance of success. Would that bonus increase it to 50%?

Discuss