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Wrongnesslessness comments on My Algorithm for Beating Procrastination - Less Wrong
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The really interesting thing here is that for once your head is doing something rational - deciding not to do a task that is not worthwhile to do (factoring into account the decreasing-over-time ability to predict future rewards) - using a fairly good equation as far as you can see - and you're trying to fight that.
We really are weird creatures.
(Not that procrastination is always rational. Often it is not. But in those cases I find it very easy not to procrastinate)
One problem with this equation is that it dooms us to use hyperbolic discounting (which is dynamically inconsistent), not exponential discounting, which would be rational (given rationally calibrated coefficients).
Well, the heuristic has to encompass the decreasing ability to predict the future for larger times, which needs not be exponential if the risks do not stay constant.