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cousin_it comments on Metauncertainty - Less Wrong
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This is a non-trivial way to coax more information from your brain: try to quantize not only gut feelings about real-world events, but also gut feelings about those gut feelings. Thanks, upvote. But I wonder if this technique actually makes you better calibrated in the end; there seems to be no way out except experiment.
I have a lot of experience with gambling and I do this reguarly. I can verify that in my experience makes you better calibrated. What I've had success with is to generate a probability range before I incorporate the market opinion, then use it to generate another. I find the key in practice is not to define a mathematical distribution but to give a mean prediction and a range that you find plausable which should have a probabiility of around 95%. Often the mean is not centered.