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Dr_Manhattan comments on Feed the spinoff heuristic! - Less Wrong
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I would add to this that having a method would often (but not always) produce a clear "leader in the field" (first-mover advantage going to the discoverer). So seeing Google's share of the market is a strong indicator (even without first-hand knowledge) that "they have a serious advantage in search" vs existence of many competing diet companies does not tell me "they figured out nutrition".
Good point, but to nitpick Google wasn't a first-mover in search, it defeated AltaVista and other search competitors based on superior performance. They were a first-mover with PageRank, though.
Yes, thanks for clarification, that's what I meant by the first mover: relative to "the thing that gives them a lot of power".