argonz comments on Feed the spinoff heuristic! - Less Wrong

49 Post author: CarlShulman 09 February 2012 07:41AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (85)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: argonz 15 February 2012 09:07:29PM 0 points [-]

The problem of the silent cemetery(sample bias?). If we start with a large enough cohort of "equally skilled" traders, who just make their investment by random, we will still end up with a handful of "old foxes" who just standing because of their proportional luck. In the meantime the failed ones laying in the cemetery silently as nobody asks them.

Of course the lucky one's skills will be rationalized(narrative fallacy in Taleb's term) and not just by themselves but the majority around them, the media etc..