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MBlume comments on The Epistemic Prisoner's Dilemma - Less Wrong
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Assuming the 99% likelihood I assign to the disease being malaria doesn't change, if I can't communicate with my colleague I obviously take the 5000 units of malaria meds. If I can communicate, I'll do my best to convince my colleague to cooperate so he takes the 10 000 units of malaria meds, and then I take the other 5000 units of malaria meds.
Either I save 5000 people or I save 15 000 people with 99% likelihood (instead of saving 0 or 10 000 people), which is similar to avoiding 5 years or 10 years in prison (instead of avoiding 0 years or 9.5 years). So yeah, it is similar to the prisoner's dilemma.
Out of curiosity, do you cooperate or defect against an unfriendly superintelligence in the regular prisoner's dilemma?
I'm one of the human beings that Eliezer has so much trouble imagining: While I'm not (entirely) selfish myself, I have no trouble acting as if I were completely selfish for the purpose of playing in the vanilla prisoner's dilemma. Consequently, it's of no relevance to me that the other agent is an unfriendly superintelligence, rather than a friendly human being. I defect in both cases.
well, thanks for the heads-up =)