AndySimpson comments on The Epistemic Prisoner's Dilemma - Less Wrong

33 Post author: MBlume 18 April 2009 05:36AM

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Comment author: AndySimpson 18 April 2009 08:57:31PM 0 points [-]

What if you're wrong?

Comment author: Furcas 18 April 2009 09:21:10PM *  3 points [-]

What if I'm wrong? Well, what if my house gets hit by a meteor today, and I get seriously wounded? Should I then regret not having left my house today?

I could wish I had left, but regretting my decision would be silly. We can only ever make decisions with the information that's available to us at the moment. Right now I have every reason to believe my house will not get hit by a meteor, and I feel like staying at home, so that's the best decision. Likewise, in the OP's scenario I have every reason to believe the disease is malaria, so getting my hands on as much malaria medication as I can is the best decision. That's all there is to it.

Comment author: AndySimpson 19 April 2009 02:47:57PM 0 points [-]

But in this case, someone with a degree of astronomical knowledge comparable to yours, acting in good faith, has come up to you and has said "I'm 99% confident that a meteor will hit your house today. You should leave." Why not investigate his claim before dismissing it?

Comment author: matt 21 April 2009 01:52:34PM 3 points [-]

The original post specifies that even taking account of the other doctor's opinion, we're still 99% sure. This seems pretty unlikely, unless we know that the other doctor is really very rationally deficient, but it's the scenario we're discussing.