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JoshuaZ comments on Hearsay, Double Hearsay, and Bayesian Updates - Less Wrong
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Why can't they just say that each additional layer makes it weaker evidence? For example, hearsay is 50% as strong as seeing it., double hearsay is 25% as strong, triple hearsay is 12.5% as strong, etc.
That's not a great system. The numbers aren't necessarily going to be the same from case to case, and having actual numbers in real life that don't come from very careful evaluations can easily lead to the illusion of precision where it doesn't exist.