TimS comments on Hearsay, Double Hearsay, and Bayesian Updates - Less Wrong

47 Post author: Mass_Driver 16 February 2012 10:31PM

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Comment author: TimS 17 February 2012 02:52:12PM *  1 point [-]

I agree that the Supreme Court cases are not on point, but the discussion of chains of evidence is worth thinking about. If we accept hearsay exceptions based on reliability (and I think exceptions for things like business records have little other justification), then hearsay within hearsay is perhaps not treated correctly. Once evidence is admitted, it is admitted - the judge doesn't instruct the jury to give less weight to hearsay within hearsay.

But probability says that if business records are 80% reliable, and present sense impressions are 70% reliable, a business record that is based on a present sense impression is 56% reliable (if I did the math right). That's unintuitive to the jury, and the legal system makes no effort to correct for this misunderstanding of statistics.

Edit: And the description of the judge sifting out evidence is a good explanation for non-lawyers.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 17 February 2012 04:52:59PM 3 points [-]

But probability says that if business records are 80% reliable, and present sense impressions are 70% reliable, a business record that is based on a present sense impression is 56% reliable (if I did the math right).

Well, .7*.8=.56, certainly, but personally I would not be so casual about assuming that the two failure rates are independent.