TimS comments on Hearsay, Double Hearsay, and Bayesian Updates - Less Wrong
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Comments (105)
I agree that the Supreme Court cases are not on point, but the discussion of chains of evidence is worth thinking about. If we accept hearsay exceptions based on reliability (and I think exceptions for things like business records have little other justification), then hearsay within hearsay is perhaps not treated correctly. Once evidence is admitted, it is admitted - the judge doesn't instruct the jury to give less weight to hearsay within hearsay.
But probability says that if business records are 80% reliable, and present sense impressions are 70% reliable, a business record that is based on a present sense impression is 56% reliable (if I did the math right). That's unintuitive to the jury, and the legal system makes no effort to correct for this misunderstanding of statistics.
Edit: And the description of the judge sifting out evidence is a good explanation for non-lawyers.
Well, .7*.8=.56, certainly, but personally I would not be so casual about assuming that the two failure rates are independent.