TheOtherDave comments on Hearsay, Double Hearsay, and Bayesian Updates - Less Wrong

47 Post author: Mass_Driver 16 February 2012 10:31PM

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Comment author: TheOtherDave 17 February 2012 04:52:59PM 3 points [-]

But probability says that if business records are 80% reliable, and present sense impressions are 70% reliable, a business record that is based on a present sense impression is 56% reliable (if I did the math right).

Well, .7*.8=.56, certainly, but personally I would not be so casual about assuming that the two failure rates are independent.