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TheOtherDave comments on Hearsay, Double Hearsay, and Bayesian Updates - Less Wrong
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I wouldn't quite expect that, but certainly I agree that if there's no expectation that punishment correlates better with committing a crime than with refraining from doing so, then punishment loses its deterrent function, which I gather is your real point here.
Part of my point.
In addition to that, perception of unfairness in the justice system devalues the social contract between government and individuals. It places the individual in a competing rather than cooperating relationship with social institutions (such as law enforcement), so it's not a mere lack of deterrence, it's active encouragement to defect for individual gain at the expense of "the man".
If you doubt it, ask anyone who lives in a neighbourhood where the cops have a record of incompetence or abuse of authority.