Eugine_Nier comments on Hearsay, Double Hearsay, and Bayesian Updates - Less Wrong

47 Post author: Mass_Driver 16 February 2012 10:31PM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 19 February 2012 09:52:43PM 2 points [-]

‘Is P(Conviction|Guilt) substantially larger than P(Conviction|Innocence)?’

Are we restricting to cases that are prosecuted or doing this over all people?

Comment author: [deleted] 19 February 2012 10:23:35PM 0 points [-]

The immediately obvious answer would be “over the prosecuted if you're only ‘testing’ the courtroom itself, over all the people if you're ‘testing’ the whole system”, but I'm not sure what the ‘ideal’ thing for a courtroom to do in terms of P(C|Prosecution, G) and P(C|P,I) if the police is ‘non-ideal’ so that P(P|G) is not close to or greater than P(P|I) to start with. Or even whether this question makes sense... I'll have to think more clearly about this when I'm not this tired.