Kaj_Sotala comments on Open Thread, February 15-29, 2012 - Less Wrong
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Note: 50% of all marriages, not 50% of all married people. The people who get married (and divorced) several times drag down the overall success rate.
Googling around revealed various claims of the success rate for first marriage: more than 70 percent, 50 to 60 percent, 70 to 90 percent, etc.
I find Stevenson-Wolfers (alt alt) a credible source. It says that 50% of first marriages in the US from the 70s lasted 25 years. Marriages from the 80s look slightly more stable. The best graph is Figure 2 on page 37.