Kaj_Sotala comments on Open Thread, February 15-29, 2012 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 15 February 2012 06:00AM

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Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 15 February 2012 02:24:43PM *  7 points [-]

Especially since more than 50% of all marriages end in divorce it dosen't seem to be, as it is practised currently, very good at its supposed function.

Note: 50% of all marriages, not 50% of all married people. The people who get married (and divorced) several times drag down the overall success rate.

Googling around revealed various claims of the success rate for first marriage: more than 70 percent, 50 to 60 percent, 70 to 90 percent, etc.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 16 February 2012 05:22:29AM *  1 point [-]

I find Stevenson-Wolfers (alt alt) a credible source. It says that 50% of first marriages in the US from the 70s lasted 25 years. Marriages from the 80s look slightly more stable. The best graph is Figure 2 on page 37.