Good. Let's see if we can make progress.

1. New habit: Every time you're wrong, write down what you were wrong about.
2. Play 'the calibration game': Use Wits & Wagers cards and give your confidence intervals. You'll probably find that 40% of the time, the correct answer was outside your 90% confidence interval. Write down all those failures.
3. If the different hypotheses don't matter for which actions you take, you're either bad at realizing the decision-theoretic implications of various hypotheses, or you're bad at spending your time thinking about things that matter. Which do you think it is?
4. Rarely is new information not evidence for or against old ideas. Maybe you need more practice in model-building? This is a separate post I'd like to write at some time; I'm not sure what useful thing I can say about it now.
5. Re: your "heinous lack of virtue." Reward yourself for effort, not for results. You have more control over the former.