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Nisan comments on Get Curious - Less Wrong
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You're right, of course. I don't think a fully direct analogy is possible here. You can't really threaten to make someone have been wrong.
"You always thought I wasn't the kind of person who would TP your house on Halloween, but if you don't give me candy I'll make you have been wrong all along!"
"Hah, got you - I actually thought all along that you were the kind of person who would TP my house if and only if denied candy on Errorwe'en!"
"Okay, and given your beliefs, are you gonna give me candy?"
"...Have a Snickers."