I doubt that selecting less than half a sentence from the lead paragraph of an article is a very careful approach to criticism.
This article actually looks pretty typical of Wikipedia articles on relatively obscure quackish biomedical ideas. It outlines what the "hypothesis" is, then makes clear that it is explicitly rejected by various people who have studied the matter. The subject doesn't have enough history or enough attention from skeptics to get the kind of treatment that, say, the article on homeopathy does.
There are two completely junk charts (no scale!) in the article. Yuck!
When read carefully, the article makes clear it's talking about an effect that even if it existed, would be very close to the noise threshold. It requires some statistical awareness — much more than the typical academic has, to say nothing of Wikipedians — to recognize that this is the same thing as saying "there's no reason to suspect an effect here."
The primary bias problem here isn't the article; it's that the subject matter is made of bias, at least as far as I can tell. There's only so many times an article can say "there are a few noisy experiments, but nobody who actually counts on radiation safety thinks this exists."
That said, there's one thing I was really surprised to find: the talk page doesn't seem to be full of supporters saying that their hypothesis is being persecuted by the mainstream and skeptics calling them a bunch of names. And that suggests to me that improvement shouldn't be too hard.
When read carefully, the article makes clear it's talking about an effect that even if it existed, would be very close to the noise threshold. It requires some statistical awareness — much more than the typical academic has, to say nothing of Wikipedians — to recognize that this is the same thing as saying "there's no reason to suspect an effect here."
Is this really true? I'm not a part of academia in any sort of way, nor do I have any sort of math or statistical training beyond what's referred to as College Algebra, and I recognized immediat...
- lessdazed
- Bruce Lee
Recently, when Eliezer wanted to explain why he thought Anna Salamon was among the best rationalists he knew, he picked out one feature of Anna's behavior in particular:
For me, the ability to reliably get curious is the basic front-kick of epistemic rationality. The best rationalists I know are not necessarily those who know the finer points of cognitive psychology, Bayesian statistics, and Solomonoff Induction. The best rationalists I know are those who can reliably get curious.
Once, I explained the Cognitive Reflection Test to Riley Crane by saying it was made of questions that tempt your intuitions to quickly give a wrong answer. For example:
If you haven't seen this question before and you're like most people, your brain screams "10 cents!" But elementary algebra shows that can't be right. The correct answer is 5 cents. To get the right answer, I explained, you need to interrupt your intuitive judgment and think "No! Algebra."
A lot of rationalist practice is like that. Whether thinking about physics or sociology or relationships, you need to catch your intuitive judgment and think "No! Curiosity."
Most of us know how to do algebra. How does one "do" curiosity?
Below, I propose a process for how to "get curious." I think we are only just beginning to learn how to create curious people, so please don't take this method as Science or Gospel but instead as an attempt to Just Try It.
As with my algorithm for beating procrastination, you'll want to practice each step of the process in advance so that when you want to get curious, you're well-practiced on each step already. With enough practice, these steps may even become habits.
Step 1: Feel that you don't already know the answer.
If you have beliefs about the matter already, push the "reset" button and erase that part of your map. You must feel that you don't already know the answer.
Exercise 1.1: Import the feeling of uncertainty.
Exercise 1.2: Consider all the things you've been confident but wrong about.
Step 2: Want to know the answer.
Now, you must want to fill in this blank part of your map.
You mustn't wish it to remain blank due to apathy or fear. Don't avoid getting the answer because you might learn you should eat less pizza and more half-sticks of butter. Curiosity seeks to annihilate itself.
You also mustn't let your desire that your inquiry have a certain answer block you from discovering how the world actually is. You must want your map to resemble the territory, whatever the territory looks like. This enables you to change things more effectively than if you falsely believed that the world was already the way you want it to be.
Exercise 2.1: Visualize the consequences of being wrong.
Exercise 2.2: Make plans for different worlds.
Exercise 2.3: Recite the Litany of Tarski.
The Litany of Tarski can be adapted to any question. If you're considering whether the sky is blue, the Litany of Tarski is:
Exercise 2.4: Recite the Litany of Gendlin.
The Litany of Gendlin reminds us:
Step 3: Sprint headlong into reality.
If you've made yourself uncertain and then curious, you're now in a position to use argument, empiricism, and scholarship to sprint headlong into reality. This part probably requires some domain-relevant knowledge and an understanding of probability theory and value of information calculations. What tests could answer your question quickly? How can you perform those tests? If the answer can be looked up in a book, which book?
These are important questions, but I think the first two steps of getting curious are more important. If someone can master steps 1 and 2, they'll be so driven by curiosity that they'll eventually figure out how to do step 3 for many scenarios. In contrast, most people who are equipped to do step 3 pretty well still get the wrong answers because they can't reliably execute steps 1 and 2.
Conclusion: Curiosity in Action
A burning itch to know is higher than a solemn vow to pursue truth. If you think it is your duty to doubt your own beliefs and criticize your own arguments, then you may do this for a while and conclude that you have done your duty and you're a Good Rationalist. Then you can feel satisfied and virtuous and move along without being genuinely curious.
In contrast,
My recommendation? Practice the front-kick of epistemic rationality every day. For months. Train your ape-brain to get curious.
Rationality is not magic. For many people, it can be learned and trained.