From our internal report (IM me for additional details)
Risk of a severe natural pandemic:
[1] There were several things I thought were sub-optimal about this process, not least of which was the confusion between frequentist and Bayesian probabilities; the latter were what was really being elicited, but expressed as the former. This led to confusion when we were asked to estimate the probability of events with no historical precedent.
Thanks.
If you don't believe that the world is rapidly changing, then 1/55 years seems fairly summarized by "when it happens."
"10 000 domestic fatalities" and "severe disruption of social services" seem like a weird pair. The latter sounds much more severe than the former. Of course, a disease that infects many but kills few could accomplish both.
If this is the most severe thing you put odds on, it's quite far from the 1% fatality rate, let alone the 20-30% MD talks about; he is probably way beyond the 90th percentile of pessimism. Is it possible that he is mixing up infection with mortality?
He has resumed posting at his blog Chronopause and he is essential reading for those interested in cryonics and, more generally, rational decision-making in an uncertain world.
In response to a comment by a LW user named Alexander, he writes:
(Sidenote: This reminds me of what Luke considers his most difficult day-to-day tasks.)
On a related note, Carl Shulman has said that more widespread cryonics would encourage more long-term thinking, specifically about existential risk. Is it a consensus view that this would be the case?
Every now and then people ask LW what sort of career they should pursue if they want to have a large impact improving the world. If we agree that cryonics would encourage long-term thinking, and that this would be beneficial, then it seems to me that we should push some of these people towards the research and practice of brain preservation. For example, perhaps http://80000hours.org/search?q=cryonics should have some results.