Thanks.
If you don't believe that the world is rapidly changing, then 1/55 years seems fairly summarized by "when it happens."
"10 000 domestic fatalities" and "severe disruption of social services" seem like a weird pair. The latter sounds much more severe than the former. Of course, a disease that infects many but kills few could accomplish both.
If this is the most severe thing you put odds on, it's quite far from the 1% fatality rate, let alone the 20-30% MD talks about; he is probably way beyond the 90th percentile of pessimism. Is it possible that he is mixing up infection with mortality?
"10 000 domestic fatalities" and "severe disruption of social services" seem like a weird pair. The latter sounds much more severe than the former.
See “9/11, immediate fatalities” and “9/11, consequences” for comparison. I can easily see huge indirect impact due to panic and the like.
[edited to add:] Also: I wouldn’t be surprised to see a graph for the distribution of “disease fatalities” that has most of the mass around 10k, perhaps with a long, low tail, but the graph of “social disruption vs. fatalities” rising very sharply before 10k, but then growing only slowly.
He has resumed posting at his blog Chronopause and he is essential reading for those interested in cryonics and, more generally, rational decision-making in an uncertain world.
In response to a comment by a LW user named Alexander, he writes:
(Sidenote: This reminds me of what Luke considers his most difficult day-to-day tasks.)
On a related note, Carl Shulman has said that more widespread cryonics would encourage more long-term thinking, specifically about existential risk. Is it a consensus view that this would be the case?
Every now and then people ask LW what sort of career they should pursue if they want to have a large impact improving the world. If we agree that cryonics would encourage long-term thinking, and that this would be beneficial, then it seems to me that we should push some of these people towards the research and practice of brain preservation. For example, perhaps http://80000hours.org/search?q=cryonics should have some results.