gwern comments on 60m Asteroid currently assigned a .022% chance of hitting Earth. - Less Wrong
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I'll rephrase it, then: any method planet A can use to attack planet B can also be used by planet A to attack planet A. In the case of an Orion object, some large hyperbolic orbit which intersects the Earth seems possible, but if not, it could always be slowly launched out to whatever distance necessary and turn around.
No doubt that's part of the explanation, but is it the whole explanation? From one of Wikipedia's refs:
Another part of the ref mentions those modifications were made due to bitter arguments about whether it would work at all. (A quote from a report to the Soviet politicians says the design allowed for bombs of 'unlimited power' - which given the context, is as trustworthy as a $3 bill.)
Reducing the yield and eliminating an entire tamper sounds like something one might do if one is not sure the instabilities have been dealt with. Finally, to quote from one of the rival Soviet bomb-makers:
(Unfortunately he doesn't say whether the complexity and size were solely an issue for delivery or intrinsic to scaling, but it's suggestive.)
Yes, it is a gross error. An Orion vehicle is probably more efficient than a giant nuke or set of nukes, so the lower bounds aren't going to be tight.
That sounds rather a lot more plausible than the story they may prefer to be believed.