Kaj_Sotala comments on I Was Not Almost Wrong But I Was Almost Right: Close-Call Counterfactuals and Bias - Less Wrong
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Tetlock (1998) also provided me with the two funniest-sounding sentences that I've read in a while (though that doesn't make them incorrect). Commenting on the "concede the counterfactual, but insist that it does not matter for the overall theory" defense: