Ben_Welchner comments on I Was Not Almost Wrong But I Was Almost Right: Close-Call Counterfactuals and Bias - Less Wrong

54 Post author: Kaj_Sotala 08 March 2012 05:39AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (39)
Tags: counterfactuals bias dr_zany

Comments (39)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: Ben_Welchner 06 March 2012 03:03:55AM 4 points [-]

He also notes that the experts who'd made failed predictions and employed strong defenses tended to update their confidence, while the experts who'd made failed predictions but didn't employ strong defenses did update.

I assume there's a 'not' missing in one of those.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 06 March 2012 07:34:46AM 2 points [-]

Fixed, thanks.

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit