fubarobfusco comments on I Was Not Almost Wrong But I Was Almost Right: Close-Call Counterfactuals and Bias - Less Wrong
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This reminds me of the notion of a premortem — an exercise for identifying weaknesses in a plan by asking you to imagine that you have implemented your plan and that it has failed. Why did it fail? By envisioning your future self conducting a postmortem on the failed plan, you might be able to identify weaknesses without going to all the expense of implementing it and failing.