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linkhyrule5 comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong
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It's entirely possible that this is entirely natural. Hermione beat Draco badly enough to put him in the Hospital Wing; either he's legitimately near-death, or Lucius blew it out of proportion.
Alternatively, Hermione and Draco actually talked it out and are currently laying a mutual trap to figure out who's using them both as pawns. I like this option, but it's also probably the least likely one.
Draco being legitimately injured would explain a bit. If a cover-up was impossible and he was going to be shamed regardless, Lucius might as well have Hermione punished.
Sure. It's just... I feel this would violate the idiot-ball rule - Hermione going berserk enough to put Draco in the hospital wing? Yes, she was angry before, but losing control is an idiot-ball thing to do.
Agree. Not sure how such a mutual trap would expose their manipulators either.
It could be an accident - Hermione hits a chandelier with a cutting cures, etc. It's a fight, things like that happen.
Whoever's manipulating them is probably not anticipating a team up. (And if they are, they're beyond the two's ability to deal with anyway, so no point in worrying about that option.) So, Hermione apparently gets taken out of the picture, while Draco is free to investigate what's going on with a manipulator who's moving ahead with his plan.
... Okay, so that was kind of nonsensical since I was deciding what my opinion was while I wrote it. Let's try this again:
Hermione and Draco meet, and actually talk it out. They decide to work together against their mysterious puppetmaster by playing along with the plot, as opposed to completely derailing it and then not knowing who was behind it.
I really like that option as well. Rereading about Hermione's demeanor at the breakfast table it does come across to me more as playing it cool then resignation at an impending arrest.
Additionally, to meta-speculate a bit. I think it is more likely that Eliezer would pretend to destroy the relationship between Draco and Hermione that he has been carefully nudging together for many many chapters then to actually destroy the relationship.
Draco definitely won't be pleased by these accusations. I wonder if he's going to have to reveal himself as a non-racist before this arch is up.
I actually think their likelihood of talking it out based on them being alone and unwatched is pretty high, and given hermione's apparent lack of worry in the morning I think that's what happened. It's possible someone else interfered after the duel to incapacitate draco and incriminate hermione.
To be honest, she reads more "hysterical and hiding it" then "unworried" to me.
One way or another she seems to have been expecting this. Otherwise she'd have been freaking out that Harry had done something. So that might eliminate the possibility of the duel having gone perfectly fine and then some plotting going on afterwards.
Yeah, one way or another Draco is either injured or "injured" (with quotes), but the duel definitely didn't go off as might be expected.