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Locke comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong
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Furthermore, if Draco was seriously harmed there is absolutely no way Hermione wouldn't have seen him to Madam Pomfrey. Perhaps it's going to be made to look like Hermione did something unfair, like tried to cast the Killing Curse?
As for the monitoring, it's possible Lucius didn't need to write but also didn't want his son to know how much he knew about what goes on in Hogwarts.
And as to his goal, I suspect getting the twelve-year-old's wand snapped is not his end-game. However, he could definitely get some leverage over Dumbledore if he has a serious case.
What makes you think she didn't see him to Madam Pomfrey?
Though it's always possible the wards in the castle immediately warn the teachers of a student wounded to the point of danger to life , and that therefore she wouldn't have time to get him to Madam Pomfrey before she or a teacher arrived to the scene.
Hermione is a kind, caring person with a strong moral core, a "Milgram resister" who wouldn't even cast a Simple Strike Hex on orders from a teacher. But she's not a pacifist, is she? Perhaps she could be convinced that harming someone, or letting them be harmed, was the right thing to do. Especially if she was brainwashed a bit.
Only applies if Hermione is aware of Draco being seriously harmed.
Suppose she stuns Draco, leaves, then someone else decides to do a number on him, either hoping Hermione will take the blame, or just not thinking about it.