Locke comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong
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It's entirely possible that this is entirely natural. Hermione beat Draco badly enough to put him in the Hospital Wing; either he's legitimately near-death, or Lucius blew it out of proportion.
Alternatively, Hermione and Draco actually talked it out and are currently laying a mutual trap to figure out who's using them both as pawns. I like this option, but it's also probably the least likely one.
Draco being legitimately injured would explain a bit. If a cover-up was impossible and he was going to be shamed regardless, Lucius might as well have Hermione punished.