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Locke comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong
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I don't think Draco would choose to have Hermione's life completely destroyed. He wants her shamed, not imprisoned, dead, or wandless.
Re-read the chapter: he's furious and working himself further into a state where he could want that. Xanatos Gambit is maybe not the right concept; it sounds pre-planned. This could have been rage-driven, spur of the moment.
His thoughts clearly state that the purpose of the duel is to be a test for the real thing.