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Jonathan_Elmer comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong
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Alright, let's get this speculation-train started. My first and most obvious thought is this: Hermione beat Draco to a pulp, and Lucius reported it. He was definitely intending to do something, and would have been monitoring his son. The trouble with this theory is that it involved admitting that Hermione beat Draco fair and square. Still, for Dumbledore to cooperate Lucius is probably involved somehow.
Also, there's Professor Quirrell to account for. I find it unlikely his absence in unrelated, especially when he probably knew Lucius would be up to something. And come to think of it, he probably has his own Marauder's Map(we now know they're in play). Hell, come to think of it I wonder who wouldn't make one if they could. Anyways, he probably doesn't want Granger thrown in Azkaban. Perhaps we'll finally get to see him up against Lord Malfoy?
It is highly unlikely that Hermione would agree to the duel considering her reaction to whatever H&C convinced her of, and Draco saw attacking her on the spot as a forced move. So, Hermione declined Draco's duel and Draco attacked her on the spot.
I think Hermione fought it life-or-death and did Draco serious damage.
Edit: Actually she should not have been able to do him serious damage if the wards actually work as they are alleged to work. Maybe she tried to do him serious damage, the wards did... whatever they do and Dumbledore felt compelled to report the attempt? I'm not sure any more.
Now that she's H&C's Mind-Rape slave, Hermione probably told him/her as soon as she got Draco's letters. So the question is what H&C would tell Hermione to do.
Come to think of it, all this has been the result of Hermione being convinced Draco is a bad egg. So, whoever benefits from this may well be or command H&C.
Hmm, I assumed that H&C did what he did with Zabini and just planted the ideas that he wished in Hermione and left the results to play out rather then engaging with Hermione in a ongoing conversation.
H&C presumably contacted Zabini more than once when using him as a pawn. I imagine he'd talk to hermione after the battle regardless of whether she was able to summon him when she got the letter.
Ok, that sounds reasonable enough.