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malderi comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong
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I suppose it is for attempted murder, but I can't imagine it being normal procedure for three Aurors and the Headmaster to arrest a student.
My prediction: The sequence of events leading up to Hermione's arrest will not be predicted, because we don't have enough information currently to do so.
Prediction: Dumbledore is pretending to lose, probably to Lucius. The Auror trio is personally loyal to Dumbledore, and Amelia Bones either doesn't know this or can plausibly deny knowing this.
Confidence for conjunction of all events above: 15%.
I don't think it'll come completely out of the blue. Come to think of it, perhaps the reason they need so many aurors is that they suspect Hermione of being more than she appears? Accusing a muggleborn of beating up your son is shameful, accusing a secret evil double-witch isn't. Maybe they'll accuse her of being an adult in disguise or something.
Well, I don't think it'll come completely out of the blue either, but I don't think predictions are possible at this time. (Should've clarified). I'm sure it'll all make total and perfect sense... In a few chapters.
By the way, EY, if you're reading this: for whatever it's worth, your writing is amazing, and stuff like the theory of potion making and then using acorns to make bright light is one of the best things I've read. Thanks for being awesome
Oh, he's reading this all right. The only question is in what manner he is laughing at us.
I look forward to description of general rules of magic in HPMOR, and maybe Harry can find some of that rules later in the book. This may be even better part than the episode with acorns.
And I agree, that is great book, mostly because it promotes scientific ideas.
They don't need many aurors, it's just that aurors come in trios.
When was this established, some time in TSPE? Because the fact that Dumbledore had three aurors for the dementor is fairly irrelevant.
There are auror trios guarding azkaban, Draco has his soldiers fight in trios in the first battle, causing harry to ask if that is how adult armies act.
Perhaps I'm just overly simple here, but it seems to me that Draco decided to do the murder setup when he was writing the letter. I understand that it could be a lot more complex than that - but not everything -has- to be complex.
My prediction: Draco dueled with intent to frame Hermione for attempted murder. Hermione sat next to HP because she knows she's screwed and there's nothing she can do about it, and she wanted to be near him when the inevitable caught up to her.
This prediction creates what I'd consider an extremely messy political problem for HP, one that quite frankly I don't see an easy magical or non-magical solution to. That may be the point.