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Donny comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong
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That Santa Claus is Hat and Cloak was the implication I took from this exchange. Still seems correct to me. It's the combination of his paranoid advice and ignorance of current events. Why would Lupin tell Harry to avoid Dumbledore? (That's the letter with the 'more trouble than James' reference.)
This is a good question, and we do in fact have evidence that Lupin doesn't totally trust Dumbledore - he worries that Dumbledore may have sent Harry off to evil step-parents.