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anotherblackhat comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong
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Sirius Black fits Santa as well, if not better, though most of what we know about Sirius comes from Cannon.
In Cannon Dumbledore had possession of The Invisibility Cloak when the Potters were killed, but he didn't necessarily keep it. This wasn't mentioned in books 1-5 though, so EY is probably unaware of that detail.
James' best friend Sirius knows James' misdeeds better than anyone besides James himself, and is much more likely to speak proudly of them than Dumbledore.
The Portkey doesn't have to have been made by Santa - it could have been made by anyone at the Salem Witches' Institute. And it doesn't work on the Hogwarts grounds.
Santa Claus claimed Dumbledore would keep The Invisibility Cloak if he ever got his hands on it, which was completely wrong, and a rather insane thing to say if it's Dumbledore (which doesn't prevent it from being Dumbledore, but still...)
Sirius wouldn't know anything about Quirrell. Dumbledore presumably researched him before offering him the DA job. Neither would trust him.
As Harry's godfather, Sirius would care a great deal about Harry.
There is also the Meta level to consider.
Sirius Black is a major fixture of Harry Potter canon. He has not yet been featured or brushed off yet (eg the Weasleys). Every other major player from the first books has been given screentime so far. It seems incredibly unlikely for Sirius to make it to chapter 78 without a showing in one form or another.
I am pretty sure Santa is someone who works / lives in Hogwarts. Outsiders are not supposed to enter on their own.
The bit about not trusting Dumbledore makes sense, even if the cloak came from him, since it allows Dumbledore to show off how trustworthy he is with little effort. And he can check how well Harry can keep a secret.