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Xachariah comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong
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There is also the Meta level to consider.
Sirius Black is a major fixture of Harry Potter canon. He has not yet been featured or brushed off yet (eg the Weasleys). Every other major player from the first books has been given screentime so far. It seems incredibly unlikely for Sirius to make it to chapter 78 without a showing in one form or another.