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Xachariah comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong
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(EDIT: This theory was disproven in Chap. 79)
I think Hat and Cloak is Lucius Malfoy. First piece of evidence: timing of his first appearance.
Chapter 34: Harry says "Maybe I'll just do what Draco tried with Zabini, and write a letter to Lucius Malfoy and see what he thinks about that."
Chapter 35: Hat and Cloak appears on-screen for the first time, to talk to Zabini.
Second piece of evidence: He says "Lucius Malfoy has taken notice of you, Hermione."
I concur that H&C is Lucius Malfoy. It seems very plain if you look at the proximate results instead assuming every character belongs in the cast of Death Note. A plan that requires that many conditionals is bound to fail.
-H&C succeeds in causing a 3 way tie: The school nearly riots.
-H&C gets Zabini to lie to Quirrell and Harry: Quirrell and Harry trust Dumbledore less.
-H&C messes with Hermoine so that she hates Draco: Draco and Hermoine stop being friends.
Not everyone has to be playing Xanatos Roulette. Some people can just use influence and get back solid and predictable returns from their actions. Lucious Malfoy makes good and predictable gains with each of these plans.