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Xachariah comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong
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Ah yes, Dumbledore did indeed wish for the 3-way tie to happen. Although it did occur with the full consent and knowledge of H&C. Whoever H&C was, he let that plan go through. I will point out that Zabini didn't just report it to Quirrell/Harry, but rather reported a distorted version that involved giving false information.
The trick I'm referring to in book 5 is when Cho's friend is testifying to Umbridge and Kingsley changes her testimony right before she gives it. It's been a while since I read it but it was probably the Imperius or Confundus. Eg, if Quirrell were willing to go these lengths to mislead Harry, he could have just cast a spell on Zabini and be done with it.
Also, I agree with you about Hermoine not trusting anything she heard from Quirrell. However, I only said that Quirrell wouldn't need so many tries, not that he'd talk to her with his face. He's had her as a student; he's interacted with her personally; hell, he's made her a general and has her marked as a person of interest. He would already know what it takes to convince her. He would have succeeded with a singly try instead of wasting hours in that corridor. What's more, Quirrell is a master legilimens; if he's willing to pull off a Groundhog Day attack on her he might as well just read her mind and get it right the first try. There's no point in wasting time, magic, and risk of getting caught when you could just do the job perfectly in 30 seconds.
Having one's mind read for the first time seems to leave some kind of trace; if he's not sure she's ever had her mind read before he shouldn't try it because then Dumbledore or Snape could learn later that someone's been peeking.
This seems to be borne out by the events of Chapter 79:
Even if Hat and Cloak is Quirrell, the job had to be done the hard way, without Legilimency.
I think you're overestimating Quirrel. Harry finds him extremely persuasive because he's inclined to agree with him, because he's grown to trust and like him. Hermione might respect him as teacher, but she doesn't trust OR like him, and this is obvious whenever harry tries to tell her something Quirrel told him. EVEN when you're extremely competent some things simply take some trial and error to get correct, and understanding a mind that's diametrically opposed to yours should be one of those things. Quirrel doesn't know EVERYTHING.
As far as legilimency goes, it's established that that the person needs to be thinking about a topic or atleast about similar topics before you can find out about it. This means that legilimizing someone in order to gain their inner motivations, worries, and handles is definitely gonna take way longer than 30 seconds.
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In chapter 75 Snape gives Hermione a rather thorough dressing-down in front of the school. Did the Groundhog Day attack in chapter 77 happen on the same day? I have been assuming that Snape & Harry were broadly correct, and the Groundhog Day attack was how that madness-guiding trick was done.
My working-theory is that the entire purpose of the attack was to produce a directed trauma, and an obsession, without a readily detectable cause.
Xachariah and Drethelin, if I've read you right you both believe that Hat and Cloak's purpose was to put some idea or belief into Hermione's head; to convince her of something. I think that there is something rather deeper and more subtly manipulative going on here.
[Edited for formatting.]