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TimS comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong
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Further evidence for this theory is that H&C is not great at modelling people, and Snape isn't good at mental models of others either.
If you think H&C2 is the same as H&C1 (I do, for conservation-of-detail reasons), Snape is a plausible candidate for competent plotter who isn't Quirrell or Dumbledore. Which isn't to say that there a clear motive in that case either.
The sticking point in my mind is that the groundhogs day attack should have been a lot more efficient if the attacker was a legilimens.
Abg fher vs Ryvrmre erjevgvat gur tebhaqubtf qnl nggnpx pbhagf nf "vafvqre vasbezngvba." Ebg13vat vg whfg gb or fher.
Guvaxvat nobhg guvf unf oebhtug nabgure vqrn gb zvaq. Gur nccnerag vapbzcrgrapr bs gur tebhaqubtf qnl nggnpx vf jung ernyyl pbashfrq zr bevtvanyyl nobhg gur vqragvgl bs U&P. Znal crbcyr zvfhaqrefgbbq jung unccrarq gurer naq Ryvrmre unq gb tb onpx naq erjevgr vg n ovg. Jung vs gung nccnerag vapbzcrgrapr jnf whfg n fvqr rssrpg bs Ryvrmre gelvat gb uryc gur ernqre haqrefgnaq JGS vf tbvat ba?
Gnxvat gung vagb nppbhag pnhfrf zl cebonovyvgl bs U&P orvat Dhveery be Fancr gb tb jnl hc.
Quirrell is also a leglimens, although I believe that he has stated that using leglimency on students makes things too easy to be amusing.
It also leaves a mark. This is first mentioned when Dumbledore checks HJPEV after Quirrell set thugs on him in, I think, chapter 19 or 20.
Ya, it turns out that mark can be seen months later. I did not expect that.
You make a good point. All I can really do is distinguish between being able to read someone's thought-at-the-moment and understanding a person's mental methodology. Knowledge of the first doesn't imply knowledge of the second. That is, if you were talking in stream-of-thought with little filter, I still probably wouldn't be able to predict what you would say 30 sec in the future.
And I'm sure that Q is not H&C1, because that would be pointless from Q's POV. If we assume the Hermione-Draco duel and aftermath was the intended effect of the groundhog day attack, I also think Q has easier ways of creating similar effects on Harry's psyche. I think Q would not need or desire to falsify the blood purity thesis ("true blood is stronger") to create a rift between HP and Draco. And if the Hermione-HP link was the target, involving Draco and Lucius seems an excessively dangerous complication.
In short, I'm not sold on Snape, but I'm fairly sure it isn't Q. And the text is explicit that Hermione recognized undisguised H&C.