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Locke comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong
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Does H&C want Lucius to try to destroy Harry? Because that's what's going to happen when Draco spills the beans about what they've been doing.
Halving the Bayesian Conspiracy would only be a setback.
What else do you predict Lucius would do?
Lucius killing Harry wouldn't be what I would call halving the conspiracy. There'd be nothing left.
Halving was meant to mean that Lucius would take Draco form HJPEV.
Do you believe killing the protagonist is within Lucius power, just now, even discounting plot-armor? I see no reason to beleive that Lucius will be more capable of killing the protagonist after this fiasco than he was before. HJPEV remains sheltered in a magical fortress and under the protection of what might be the world's most powerful wizard.
I don't mean to ask "What else do you predict would Lucius desire to do?" but "What else do you predict Lucius would do?"
Ahh, right. Just a setback.
Even canon shows us ways to bypass Hogwarts security, and this MoR!Lucius is far, far more cunning. Harry himself could do far, far more to see to his own personal safety too, rather than being largely passive in that regard.
The actual reason I agree with you that killing Harry will be difficult for Lucius is Quirrel. Quirrel is much better at being evil than Lucius is. If Quirrel wants Harry alive Lucius will struggle to have him killed.
That said, Lucius has an ace up his sleeve, if he is ruthless enough to use it. Draco. There is more that Lucius can do with Draco than preventing Harry from using him. Lucius is a dark wizard. He can use imperius and has an abundance of resources with which to make the most of that opening.
MoR!Dumbledore is also more awesome than his weaksauce Rowling equivalent, or should I say, this Dumbledore is actually competent.
I'd equate it to a bronze-age theist discovering someone was an proselytizing atheist and had deconverted their child.
I'm not sure that a Bronze Age theist could really comprehend atheism. How about a mediaeval Catholic?
I'm expecting Lucius to be manipulated into asking questions under veritaserum of his son that he really doesn't want the Wizengamot to hear the answer to, e.g Blood Purity, and the plausibility of same.