Halving the Bayesian Conspiracy would only be a setback.
Lucius killing Harry wouldn't be what I would call halving the conspiracy. There'd be nothing left.
Halving was meant to mean that Lucius would take Draco form HJPEV.
Do you believe killing the protagonist is within Lucius power, just now, even discounting plot-armor? I see no reason to beleive that Lucius will be more capable of killing the protagonist after this fiasco than he was before. HJPEV remains sheltered in a magical fortress and under the protection of what might be the world's most powerful wizard.
I don't mean to ask "What else do you predict would Lucius desire to do?" but "What else do you predict Lucius would do?"
(The HPMOR discussion thread after this one is here.)
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. There haven't been any chapters recently, but it looks like there are a bunch in the pipeline and the old thread is nearing 700 comments. The latest chapter as of 7th March 2012 is Ch. 77.
There is now a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author's Notes.
The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag. Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system. Also: one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine.
As a reminder, it's often useful to start your comment by indicating which chapter you are commenting on.
Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically: