ArisKatsaris comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10 - Less Wrong

11 Post author: Oscar_Cunningham 07 March 2012 04:46PM

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Comment author: ArisKatsaris 17 March 2012 01:57:29PM *  5 points [-]

Eh, by now you know you overthought this. Eliezer could have just meant that he knew there was a trial coming up, or that the song in question mentions the word "hat", or a number of other possibilities.

Seriously, don't limit the hypothesis space to "Either my current theory is exactly right to the letter" or "Eliezer tricked me into thinking the current theory is exactly right to the letter". It's always possible that the other guy just meant something different, no deception involved.

Comment author: Anubhav 17 March 2012 03:00:08PM 2 points [-]

Lesson learned:

When you have eliminated the impossible, that which remains is often more improbable than your having made a mistake with one of your impossiblity proofs.

(However, if the Sorting Hat is summoned again, during the trial, this time with Pervenit Judex, I shall be very, very, tempted to conclude that Eliezer is just trolling us.)