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Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10
(The HPMOR discussion thread after this one is here.)
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. There haven't been any chapters recently, but it looks like there are a bunch in the pipeline and the old thread is nearing 700 comments. The latest chapter as of 7th March 2012 is Ch. 77.
There is now a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author's Notes.
The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag. Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system. Also: one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine.
As a reminder, it's often useful to start your comment by indicating which chapter you are commenting on.
Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically:
You do not need to rot13 anything about HP:MoR or the original Harry Potter series unless you are posting insider information from Eliezer Yudkowsky which is not supposed to be publicly available (which includes public statements by Eliezer that have been retracted).
If there is evidence for X in MOR and/or canon then it's fine to post about X without rot13, even if you also have heard privately from Eliezer that X is true. But you should not post that "Eliezer said X is true" unless you use rot13.
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Comments (641)
I'm thinking that Harry is about to try to either command or destroy the dementor. To do either, he'd have to leave his dark side, so I'm not sure how successful he'll be. I'm close to certain that the Eliezer put the dementor there for a reason, and that the reason probably wasn't so that Harry could say, "dementors are bad" again.
I was playing with a cat this morning, and I thought to myself:
As phoenixes are to Gryffindor, so are cats to Ravenclaw, and dogs to Hufflepuff.
Phoenixes know only bravery; dogs know only playfulness and loyalty; cats know only curiosity.
I think the dog one is best, but I couldn't think of anything for Slytherin.
Humans.
Snakes are associated with Slytherin pretty heavily in the books.
Yes, but snakes don't live their lives constantly being ambitious.
Lions are the mascot of Gryffindor, not phoenixes. But phoenixes embody the virtues of Gryffindor.
Badgers are the mascot of Hufflepuff. But if you ever encounter an animal more Hufflepuff than Lassie I will eat my hat.
My point isn't that there aren't animals that are associated to houses, it's that dogs don't understand anything except Hufflepuff, just like Phoenixes don't understand anything except Gryffindor.
I don't see it. They burn up and are reborn. They heal stuff. They make things light. They are loyal and from what I can tell excessively empathetic. Sound like baddass Hufflepuffs to me.
If they constatly charged into fights trying to show off (then getting killed and reborn all the time) then sure, Gryffindor!
And eagles for Ravenclaw, again, not particularly Ravenclaw in real life.
A more suitable mascot in terms of behavioral traits and abilities would be, well, a Raven.
Ravens are hoarding thieves, rather than scholars. There is a similarity, there, but typically a mascot reflects aspects more flatteringly, no?
When you are creating animal mascots to represent your defining features and your defining feature is IQ and cleverness you run into something of a problem. The only scholars I know are humans.
I'd obviously go with crows rather than ravens (both have respectable levels of intelligence). The ravenclaw mascot being a crow just doesn't quite seem right for some reason.
I'm actually not sure that Ravenclaw has anything to do with IQ or cleverness. Harry thinks it does- he notes at one point that "the 75th percentile of Hogwarts students a.k.a. Ravenclaw House is not the world's most exclusive program for gifted children"- but in actual practice it seems more like studiousness, or curiosity, or love of knowledge for its own sake, is the unifying trait. I mean, Dumbledore is a Gryffindor, Voldemort and Snape and Draco are Slytherins...
And Hermione and McGonnagal are both Gryffindor (in canon). House assignment is broken.
I think you are right about 'love of knowledge for its own sake'. A certain level of intelligence would also seem to be required.
They have to answer riddles to enter the dorms. But this may not require intelligence so much as genre-savviness. (Particularly in canon.)
Yeah, I have to agree that "If Hermione Granger didn't go to Ravenclaw then there was no good reason for Ravenclaw House to exist."
Of course, in canon Pettigrew is a Gryffindor. It's enough to make one wonder about the whole idea of unifying traits.
New Disscussion Thread! Here.
Minor bug report: chapter 79 says "Blood-Cooling Charm" instead of "Blood-Chilling Charm" in one place.
So, possible Wild Guess, but has enough reinforcement that I'm going to throw it out there.
Right now, it seems like Eliezer is pushing to the trial. The chapter implies that Harry has done nothing else of note before Hermione's trial, meaning he will have limited ability to defend her. Without any sort of evidence to raise reasonable doubt, he'd basically have to manipulate the Wizengamot.
... Which, while beyond Harry's ability, is not beyond others. In particular: Quirrellmort.
If Quirrell manages to get Hermione acquitted...
1) Quirrell earns lots of Harry points. Regains trust after the Azkaban semi-fiasco.
2) Quirrell emphasizes his role as Harry's mentor and protector when even Dumbledore is helpless.
3) Meanwhile, this whole fiasco has convinced Harry even more that the wizarding society has issues.
4) Hermione is reinstated as an ally of Harry. If Quirrellmort's goal is to strengthen Harry, this is also a plus.
5) Draco is now a victim of a plan, and earns pity, not respect, destabilizing Lucius' power base.
If, simultaneously, Quirrell were to keep Lucius from undoing Harry's turning...
1) Again, adds another ally, Harry points, etc.
And if both... then we have two heroes of Slytherin and of Ravenclaw who survived an evil plot, and may well garner sympathy for that plot. And remember, Quirrell promised to make Slytherin and Ravenclaw simultaneously win the House Cup...
Quirrell storming into the trial when the majority of the audience believes him to be the one behind everything sounds quite like this story's style.
The trouble with this theory is that the arc is confirmed to last until chapter 84, and Quirrell being suddenly released from custody would be far too short of a resolution.
I suspect Harry and Co will come up with some sort of last-ditch effort during the trial, leading to some sort of awesome event like the previously suggested Trial-By-Combat (though obviously not that). I suspect Quirrell will play some part in the end, though.
Oh, and I'd like to predict that we find out H&C's identity during this arc.
It was mentioned that Fawkes was in the room. Maybe Harry threatens the chamber with having Fawkes teleport him to Azkaban and destroying all the dementors after demonstrating on the one in the room.
It is surprising that Quirrell would accidentally reveal himself as an impostor during interrogation; so, perhaps the Quirrell currently in custody is an impostor--meaning that he is not the Quirrell currently teaching at Hogwarts. If so, the imposter is there to give Quirrell time to do something else. He may be attempting to prove Hermione's innocence (even if he is to blame for the current situation), or he may also be after the Philosopher's stone.
Highly unlikely unless there are two Quirrels running around in possession of powerful wandless magic (remember the 'sneeze'?)
The "ending at 84" is actually another reason I thought this was likely, because frankly, there's only so much Harry can do at the trial itself. I'm imagining the next four chapters or so being about the aftermath of the trial, seeing Hermione's and Draco's reactions and the ripple effects of the trial.
So what are people's odds that Harry manages to get Hermione off?
Rot13 so people don't anchor.
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I'll be astounded if he manages to win outright. So the question is what he'll have to give up for his best friend's sake.
Very good point. Most of the evidence suggesting that Harry will lose Hermione is also evidence in favor of him losing something else with equal (or given the title of the sequence, greater) value.
I don't think they're at that stage in their relationship yet, do you?
Yep... i don't think so either.. but then they aren't normal kids either so this ain't a normal relationship..:-P
Methinks there are some places conversations about 11-year-olds don't need to go...
Well if if were her final request...
Surely there are certain spells...
That might cause wireheading problems...
Harry and co. have one untapped potential ally: Lucius Malfoy. If they gave him all their clues, he may be convinced, just as they have been. And he has a powerful motive to find out who really tried to kill his son, even if he goes through with the trial against Hermione to avoid losing face.
The problem is how to approach him. He would not trust Dumbledore (his political enemy), Harry (he believes he is Voldemort and will soon hate him for 'turning' Draco), or Snape or Minerva (Dumbledore's agents).
I nominate Quirrel (to be sent by Harry) - known (or at least publicly displaying himself to be) free of Dumbledore's influence, a powerful Slytherin, and the one who actually saved Draco's life. Lucius would listen to him. Whether Quirrel would want to cooperate is another matter, but he should have some difficulty saying no to Harry and Dumbledore at once.
For Lucius to trust them, some of them might have to volunteer to testify in front of him under Veritaserum that they really believe the theory that Hermione didn't do it. Dumbledore is a known Occlumens, Snape and Quirrel would at least be suspected of being such, Harry told Draco he is so now Lucius knows as well. A weaker character like Minerva would be useless because Lucius could easily believe Dumbledore misled her. This is a problem...
Lucius would obey a direct order from Voldemort, I should think. Maybe not from Harrymort, but if Quirrell could reveal himself...
If revealed as Voldemort, yes. But Harry doesn't know that Quirrel can do this, and Quirrel isn't going to volunteer that bit of information for Hermione's sake.
Or do you mean exploiting Lucius' apparent belief in Harrymort? (Edit, see you added that.) I don't think he's going to obey an order from him. Maybe consider a request. Probably not even that, given his threat of destroying Harrymort if he hurt Draco, which by Lucius' lights he probably has while 'turning' him.
Harry needn't know how Quirrell convinces Lucius. So if the professor really is innocent, and Harry threatens to end their relationship if Hermione is sentenced, then Quirrell might arrange a highly secret meeting with Lucius in order to preserve his grasp on the Boy-Who-Lived.
If the professor is Hat and Cloak, he's probably going to be certain he's detained until the trial ends.
Why would Harry make such a demand unless he believed Quirrel could deliver? Do you imagine Harry asking Quirrel to Imperius Lucius, or mess with his memory? Harry's knowledge of such (presumed) acts would give him a way too big lever against Quirrel for as long as he continues under his Quirrel identity (which Harry would think is forever). Lucius or his allies might also find out and try to retaliate in the long term. And Quirrel has no personal motive to help Hermione.
So while Harry would ask Quirrel for help (if he could reach him), he would not demand that particular help, not with a threat of severing their relationship. And I imagine that even if he did Quirrelmort would probably refuse. Agreeing to such a huge price just to keep their relationship would not be in character.
Edit: I see now that you didn't specify Harry would ask Quirrel to act against Lucius, just to resolve the situation somehow. Still, if the observed result was a change in Lucius's behavior, and if later Lucius (through Draco) didn't supply a convenient excuse for it, Harry would forever wonder what presumably-political levers Quirrel could have at that level.
Also, Quirrel clearly isn't leaving Auror custody until the trial and so Harry can't ask him and Quirrel can't act.
Now that Dumbledore is using the map (and perhaps other means?) to search for, presumably, Tom Riddle on the grounds of Hogwarts, it's not clear how Quirrel can ever risk going back. I'd expect Dumbledore to keep checking the map once or twice a day, indefinitely, since he seems to believe it can find Voldermort if he's not in the Chamber of Secrets.
The thing is, If Quirrell is behind all this and is being detained unnecessarily is his plan, then Harry has got to realize that everything that has transpired has been according to his design. In fact, if he were H&C I'd expect him to be present so he could put on a show of doing his best to save Hermione. So it's very possible that the real culprit has planned for the professor's absence in order to turn Harry against him. That might be exactly what Quirrell will tell Harry when he is released post-trial, but frankly I don't see why he'd go through the extra trouble and cast doubt on himself just so as to avoid pretending to help.
Unless, as you say, he is avoiding the map. However, the battle-map in 78 demonstrates that the Marauders did not invent the device. Thus, there is almost definitely one at the Ministry, where security is paramount. So if Quirrell did show up as Tom Riddle on such maps, he'd be assaulted by a hundred Aurors the moment he stepped foot on the premises.
Therefore, I conclude that Quirrell is innocent.
The founders of Hogwarts created the map. Dumbledore considers the wards at Hogwarts stronger than those in the Department of Mysteries, so it stands to reason that all the aspects of the Hogwarts security system are stronger than those at the Ministry, including the map.
No, Fred and George think that Salazar might have created the map.
Actually, if in MoR it doesn't mention Moody, Wormtail, Padfoot and Prongs, then the founders are a good guess.
Dumbledore asked for the map, and used the sorting hat to procure a crystal rod which allowed him to manipulate it. It is an artifact of the founders.
Dumbledore didn't order the map to obey on his authority as Headmaster, he summoned a tool with which to fiddle with it. How do you know that crystal rods aren't a standard way to affect enchanted objects, and the one kept in the Sorting Hat is just unusually high-quality?
I mean, if it was created by the founders, the Marauders would have had to do something very similar in the first place. So either Dumbledore undid the Marauders' alterations, or he altered their (or whoever's) creation the same way they would have had to, counterfactually. How do you distinguish between the options?
Well, it doesn't stand to reason exactly, but it stands to guess given a lack of contradictory evidence, at least.
Harry already has (he would think) an ultimate lever: The breakout from Azkaban. If he so wished, he could inform Dumbledore and the DMLE and bring all the wrath of Britain down on Quirrell. It would mean incredible costs for Harry, but he could do it. Although, my mental model of Harry says that he would never actually do that.
Even as an occlumens, Harry could prove he and Quirrell did it. Harry has knowledge of Azkaban that no 10 year old should know. He can communicate with dementors to identify himself. He could recreate the rocket he used. Dumbledore can identify his patronus, etc. He's also got a good chance of getting off without many repercussions due to being a minor under someone else's influence and being the boy-who-lived.
Now, Harry doesn't seem like the trust authority like that, but he could pull it off. Heck, even if Quirrell wouldn't agree to help Harry, Harry could probably just lie and say Quirrell planned this against Hermoine and get this crime pinned on Quirrel if he really wanted to. I don't think Harry would actually do this, but it's a possibility. Harry has an untapped resource to save her that nobody knows about (Knowledge of the Azkaban heist), but he either wouldn't think of it or he'd consider it not worth it.
Harry also knows that Quirrell is an unregistered animagus.
Prediction: Lucious' questioning of Malfoy and subsequent discussion will have results such that Hermione will be saved by the restraint of the Malfoy family in choosing not to punish her severely if at all.
"Mr. Potter, I found my son's memories of your experiments most convincing. Teach me more of these Methods of Rationality you speak of."
Wait, what was it Harry said about optimism?
Not like that. I was thinking more along the lines of manipulating Harry.
If Harry does not manage to find the real culprit, then how does he save Hermione from having her wand broken?
Breakout/Direct Attack on the Wizengamot / Malfoy Manor
Transfigure a one-atom line of antimatter through the earth's crust all the way to the Wizengamot or Malfoy Manor, and then a small bubble there. His wand is then touching the item to be transformed, and it will work.
Go to Azkaban and round up a few hundred dementors.
Stealth
Bringing Hermione under the aegis of a noble house
Bribery, Trade, or Begging
Harry could offer to pay Lucius Malfoy something in restitution. It couldn't just be money or an incredible favor. As the original 'Taboo Tradeoffs' paper mentions, people only get more angry when you try to do that. Harry would need an accurate model of Lucius suspecting him as Harrymort and be able to trade him something that Harrymort would consider sacred.
Trade his invisibility cloak to Lucius for Hermione's freedom. Make sure to play up that it is 1/3rd of the Deathly Hallows and thus something Harrymort considers sacred/invaluable.
Trade Lucius a blood debt from the House of Potter.
Make an unbreakable vow to protect Draco or otherwise help Lucius (or some other ritual).
(Assuming Roger Bacon's diary is indeed the diary Horcrux and Harry manages to discover that) Trade Lucius a piece of Voldemort's soul as apology.
None of the trades seem particularly smart or likely, but Harry might consider a few of them if he got really desperate. They seem to be of sufficient value to Lucius (or rather, to Harry's model of Lucius' model of Harrymort) to prove that Harry is genuinely sorry and be worth Hermione's life/magic/future.
Stealth - not only he must transfer cloak to Hermione - he must also get Hermione out of court, and she must be in cloak at all times to prevent tracking magic, and Harry must have the cloak with himself, when Dumbledore will want to see it, when tracking magic will stop working (and there's spell that detects if cloak is nearby).
One way to do this - duplicate cloak using time turner for the moment Dumbledore will want to check it.
Scheme:
Harry takes cloak, mokesking pouch, and time turner with himself to the court
Harry waits for Hermione to disappear
Harry puts his mokeskin poach under the table or somewhere and not look at it
Hermione disappears
Dumbledore try to track Hermione and fails - so he checks if cloak is near - it is, so he asks Harry about it - Harry shows cloak to Dumbledore and it's empty
Harry goes back wearing cloak just before the moment Hemrione should disappear, takes the mokeskin poach that he left under the table, somehow makes everybody look elsewhere and put Hermione into his own mokeskin poach which he keeps under the duplicated cloak (may need to use potion or sth that will turn Hermione into animal or thing or sth that he can put into poach - like with Quirrell as a snake).
Harry in the past waits for Dumbledore to check the cloak that Harry in the present has with himself, waits for everybody to get out, and somehow passes the poach back to himself without looking at himself. Harry in the present puts poach into the cloak.
Possible failures - Dumbledore can keep the cloak, making it impossible to hide Hermione after the time turner is used up. I think Dumbledore won't do this - he didn't wanted to keep cloak to himself, he wants Harry to have cloak just in case, and even if he see throught this plot, he can let it slip, because he probably don't want Hermione to have wand snapped. But it's one failure mode.
Also Harry must be prepared to "prove" he didn't used up his TimeTurner, like he did after Azkaban Breaking.
I probbly missed something, and this won't work.
How would Harry even get to the trial in the first place? Dumbledore won't let him leave Hogwarts, and if he did, why should the Wizengamot admit him to the proceedings unless e.g. Dumbledore requested it? And why would D. do that unless he expected Harry to succeed in helping Hermione escape? But if D. wanted Hermione to escape illegally (possible but unlikely IMO), he could surely arrange that himself without Harry's help and presence. (Maybe he'd borrow the cloak...)
"Harry had used up all six hours from his Time-Turner, and there were still no clues, and he had to go to sleep now if he wanted to be functional at Hermione's trial the next day."
I assumed this means Harry will be at trial. Probably as a witness?
He could only be a character witness, at most. Not very relevant to the trial at hand.
Maybe Dumbledore will just bring him in as a spectator, and wouldn't have to ask anyone's permission. We don't know what the rules for that are.
He is a member of a noble house. He is probably entitled to observe, even if his age prevents him from taking his seat.
The transfiguration idea is very clever, but I suspect that the Wizengamot and Malfoy Manor would both have powerful defenses which would block harmful transfigurations. It also isn't clear what the range is on transfiguration.
He consults professor Quirrell, accuses him of setting this all up to rob him of friends, and demands that he free Hermione in order to prove his innocence and good-will.
Quirrell disappears, reappears, and informs Harry that Lucius had a change of heart and is dropping all charges.
Items aren't held in stasis while in mid-transfiguration as far as I am aware.
I'm not sure he even needs a line anyway.
It took me a while to figure out what you meant by this. I'm pretty sure, from the descriptions we've been given, that while transfiguration requires some time spent concentrating, the actual change happens instantaneously at the end- if you're interrupted before you finish, nothing happens.
As an airborne scout, Goyle was able to report what HJPEV & Blaise were in the process of transfiguring during the battle in chapter 78.
Is that less than conclusive evidence that the transformation is gradual?
You know, you're right. I was going off the demonstration of partial Transfiguration:
Which seemed to me to indicate that the glass didn't appear until a few minutes after he started the transfiguration. And the bit where Harry cuts through Azkaban's interior wall seems to make somewhat less sense if it's gradual- the motor oil would just drip out, for instance.
But the fact that Goyle could recognize the cauldrons before the transfiguration was done pretty conclusively rules the idea out. Oops.
Ok, do the same with a radioactive substance- it won't do anything until enough has been transfigured to go critical.
Harry would never use dementors as his army.
Problem one, Dumbledore is Harry's legal guardian and would need to approve such acts. Problem two, there is then a blood debt from House Potter to House Malfoy, so maybe Harry has his wand snapped instead of Hermione, and how is that any better?
Before the Heaven's Feel arc, you mean.
Can somebody dereference "Heaven's Feel arc" for those of us who aren't familiar with it?
Fate/Stay Night comes up in MoR as the franchise whose Fuyuki City trips up Quirrel in the interrogation*; the 'Heaven's Feel' route is one possible plot in the FSN franchise. Plot summary, ref is probably to evil-Sakura's 'army of shadows', which matches up well with Dementors.
* I looked it up, and Quirrel's visit there in 1983 or whatever would have coincided with the birth of a few minor characters but nothing else important in the FSN universe, as far as I could tell.
I'm assuming that the evidentiary standards are higher for conflicts between noble houses. I could also imagine a trial by combat alternative.
I'm getting the sense there isn't an evidentiary standard at all, not in any case. Each side argues their case and presents whatever evidence they like, and then the Wizengamot votes whatever the hell they feel like, nonwithstanding evidence to the contrary. Remember what Draco told Potter back at the train station: the Malfoys can get out of any accusations before the Wizengamot, like a non-noble accusing Draco of rape, simply because they've got the votes. Or the case with clearing Hagrid of blame: Quirrel said it would go ahead "because Lucius would have no reason to oppose it" (my words).
As much as I'd love it, there's no chance of a trial by combat. "If we did it your way, Kingslayer, you'd win. We're not doing it your way."
What, Lord (Harry) Potter against Lord Lucius Malfoy? What a fine trial by combat that would be.
No, they'd be allowed champions, and Dumbledore would win.
If it were that easy, Lucius couldn't contest Dumbledore politically. I suppose the Wizengamot would have to rule to adjudicate by combat, and they won't in an apparently clearcut murder attempt case.
Well, for underage wizards, they get a champion, obviously. Dumbledore or Quirrel, I'd assume.
Ten points to Slytherin for creativity. Minus ten bajillion points for holy shit, are you suicidal?!
That's just 15 joules per cubic meter of rock, until you get to the bomb. Not even detectable. I wonder, however, how the magic source is going to do turning energy back into matter afterwards.
Why would the magic source do that? Wouldn't the antimatter just react with the surrounding matter and turn into energy under the laws of physics, and stay that way?
How did you get 15J, by the way?
Cube root(number of atoms in a 1m^3 cube of silicon(simplification)=number of atoms in a one atom line, assuming that the atoms were arranged in an cubic crystal(simplification). Mass-energy of those atoms, times two (for complete destruction) and then subtract for the particles that do not decay immediately (I had to look that up, I think I got about 5/6th remaining)
Damn. Why are people not blowing things up with antimatter all the time?
Ignorance, high transfiguration skill level required, magical safeguards in place, possibly.
Makes sense. We could probably also build a power plant powered by transfigured antimatter.
How would blowing up Malfoy Manor help Harry anyway? He'd be hurting Draco, who loves his father, and the court case brought by Draco against Hermione would go forward.
Are we sure of that? The trial might vanish if the House of Malfoy is extirpated.
Won't save Slytherin, which is one of HP's goals.
I'm guessing that currently Hermione factors about 50 times more in Harry's utility function than the whole of Slytherin House put together.
Hermione is much more important, but HP would prefer a plan that did not inherently make Draco his enemy. I don't think it is much of a stretch to think exposing Malfoy Manor to anti-matter would make Draco become an enemy.
Only because she's in more and more immediate danger. It might be possible to build another plot to help Slytherin later, but Hermione needs help now.
I'm sure Harry wouldn't want to extirpate the whole House, which includes Draco. Just killing Lord Malfoy (and any servants who happened to be near) is enough collateral damage that Harry wouldn't seriously consider it if Hermione isn't facing outright death herself.
Besides, I'm pretty sure there are other branches of the Malfoys that would inherit the title. Draco mentioned an uncle or some other relative not in the line of succession who used to visit him at least a few years ago.
Even better- That uncle will likely want the title, so Harry just needs to bargain with him.
"If you get the title, you'll drop all charges, right?"
Does H&C want Lucius to try to destroy Harry? Because that's what's going to happen when Draco spills the beans about what they've been doing.
Halving the Bayesian Conspiracy would only be a setback.
What else do you predict Lucius would do?
I'd equate it to a bronze-age theist discovering someone was an proselytizing atheist and had deconverted their child.
I'm not sure that a Bronze Age theist could really comprehend atheism. How about a mediaeval Catholic?
I'm expecting Lucius to be manipulated into asking questions under veritaserum of his son that he really doesn't want the Wizengamot to hear the answer to, e.g Blood Purity, and the plausibility of same.
Lucius killing Harry wouldn't be what I would call halving the conspiracy. There'd be nothing left.
Halving was meant to mean that Lucius would take Draco form HJPEV.
Do you believe killing the protagonist is within Lucius power, just now, even discounting plot-armor? I see no reason to beleive that Lucius will be more capable of killing the protagonist after this fiasco than he was before. HJPEV remains sheltered in a magical fortress and under the protection of what might be the world's most powerful wizard.
I don't mean to ask "What else do you predict would Lucius desire to do?" but "What else do you predict Lucius would do?"
Ahh, right. Just a setback.
Even canon shows us ways to bypass Hogwarts security, and this MoR!Lucius is far, far more cunning. Harry himself could do far, far more to see to his own personal safety too, rather than being largely passive in that regard.
The actual reason I agree with you that killing Harry will be difficult for Lucius is Quirrel. Quirrel is much better at being evil than Lucius is. If Quirrel wants Harry alive Lucius will struggle to have him killed.
That said, Lucius has an ace up his sleeve, if he is ruthless enough to use it. Draco. There is more that Lucius can do with Draco than preventing Harry from using him. Lucius is a dark wizard. He can use imperius and has an abundance of resources with which to make the most of that opening.
MoR!Dumbledore is also more awesome than his weaksauce Rowling equivalent, or should I say, this Dumbledore is actually competent.
I figure being referenced in the author's notes is enough to justify cross posting. I guess I'll find out if that's the case. (In the choice between not posting and posting without updating speculation, I decided to rationalize my sloth with a false dichotomy, maybe.)
pervenit pasta
Chapter 14: The Unknown and the Unknowable
HJPEV tells McGonagall about the message for Slytherin's Heir, refuses point-based reward, receives Time Turner, freaks the fuck out about receiving a time machine to treat his sleep disorder, has another 'you turned into a cat' moment, receives invisibility cloak from unknown person, learns what getting lost in Hogwarts entails, pranks himself, learns "There was something wrong with Harry Potter."
Chapter 21: Rationalization
Hermione deludes herself about why she likes beating HJPEV, chooses love, displays knowledge of Planning Fallacy, claims her prize; HJPEV creeps it up with Draco, claims Hermione as his own, traps Draco with promises of power, mentions that Draco should test the strength of muggleborn magic personally, agrees that human sacrifice is easier than changing his mind, establishes tradition of secrecy in the magical sciences, establishes Bayesian Conspiracy, receives a book, advice, and petty cash from 'Santa Claus,' receives 12-candle cake from twins, hears "HE COMES-' prophecy, summarizes the first 21 chapters for us, and writes home.
Chapter 26: Noticing Confusion
Quirrell dishes a Take That on cannon, lowers room temperatures, thoughtfully tortures inkwell to death, concedes that remedial education for mugleborn students is worthwhile damage control, and is cheered up; HJPEV learns the results of his proxy-prank on Rita Skeeter, is permitted to see uncommon expressions on Quirrell's face, takes a papercut that this reader once thought might have left Quirrell with a drop of his blood, becomes frustrated when Quirrell claims to have figured the prank out and refuses to share, is thwarted and dismayed at the bank, realizes what he did to Skeeter, is forced to say some things contrary to his good nature, and receives Roger Bacon's stolen diary; Quirrell foreshadows knowing where the Resurrection Stone is and kills Skeeter.
Chapter 35: Coordination Problems
HJPEV stares down Quirrell in a dispute over government models, Blaise Zabini meets Quirrel's eyes, while lying, while possessing knowledge of Mr. Hat-and-Cloak, and tells Quirrell and the hidden HJPEV that Dumbledore sent bullies after his cousin; Quirrell sells the story of Dumbledore's plotting and tells HJPEV that Dumbledore is "insane pretending to be sane pretending to be insane," then telegraphs his additional meeting to the reader; HJPEV demonstrates a preference for Heroic Sacrifice and shows the reader his allegiance to the muggles, not the magic; Mr. Hat-and-Cloak checks in on Blaise, uses the phrase "Salazar Slytherin would have keyed his monster into the ancient wards at a higher level than the Headmaster himself" which is almost repeated by Quirrell in chapter 49, "some entity which Salazar Slytherin keyed into his wards at a higher level than the Headmaster himself," and wipes himself from Blaise's memories; McGonagall tries to talk to Hermione about reasonable safety concerns and what good girls should be up to, fails; HJPEV uses ham-fisted reverse psychology on Draco, succeeds, and confesses his unnatural love for Quirrell.
Chapter 40: Pretending to be Wise
Quirrell lectures HJPEV on becoming vulnerable to Let's You And Him Fight (which is tragically a trope that diverges from the original meaning of the phrase and so is not linked here), answers some questions about the afterlife, lowers room temperatures, makes a joke with two of his favorite words as the punchline, learns that he already knows where the Resurrection Stone is (despite having just told HJPEV that he should be careful when sharing information), drops a hint regarding his (modestly successful) quest for immortality, and runs off to steal a Deathly Hallow which he has almost certainly possessed since that very afternoon.
Chapter 43-47: Humanism & Personhood Theory
Dumbledore thinks Dementor Day is part of a cunning plan; Quirrell can teach AK to students who ask; Hermione and HJPEV want to Patronus, but cannot, and so they both embarass themselves and logically enough end up kissing after HJPEV experiences a memory a human brain could not contain and explores Utilitarianism; HJPEV explains his position on death, symbolically kills it while the author reveals the nature of Dementors, then refuses to tell anyone else how it's done; Quirrell punningly says that he does not mind being called a Death Eater, which is surprising considering what he did to the last person we know of who made that accusation, identifies Dumbledore as the most attractive target in all of Hogwarts, calls HJPEV on Confirmation Bias, and elicits a Top Five Hiding Places list from HJPEV, which turns out to be 'riddle' of some sort (or just another opportunity to pun his name in); HJPEV sends Hermione a How To (Symbolically) Defeat Death pamphlet, and figures some things out about his "I Was an Infant Honeypot" origin story, or so he thinks; Draco Patronuses, realizes that HJPEV is a Slytherin, hears about the insidious evils of discrimination, tells HJPEV about Dumbledore's evil deeds, the two boys talk about their dead mothers and bond under starlight; snakes briefly appear sentient
Chapter 56: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Constrained Optimization & Constrained Cognition
HJPEV lies to McGonagall; Dumbledore's Patronus can hunt; HJPEV dominates Bella, his dark side, his invisibility cloak, and a handful of Dementors, he hides from Dumbledore and transfigures some impressive things
Chapter 63: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Aftermaths
HJPEV & Hermione talk about what Phoenixes are for; HJPEV trusts Draco with a letter form Lucius; Neville does not get the support he might have expected from HJPEV in his proposed vengeance on Bella; Lesath Lestrange pledges himself to HJPEV, fails; Amelia Bones learns that someone was looking out for her people, draws the wrong conclusions in entirely an understandable fashion; Dumbledore tells the twins not to let HJPEV out of Hogwarts for any reason, appears successful; Moody supplies some of the best not-quite internal monologue in the whole fic while he and Snape punk the wrong bones; HJPEV muses on the nature and consequences of dishonesty and other depressing things related to human nature, then gets all mortal and human with Hermione, but not that way; Santa Claus strikes again; Sybill Trelawney speaks prophesies we are not told.
Chapter 66: Self Actualization
HJPEV cares about what Draco and Hermione think of him, tells Quirrell so; Hermione hears that HJPEV and Neville have been hanging with Edward and learning to be hardcore; HJPEV and Neville are hanging with Edward and learning to be hardcore.
Chapter 73-77: Self Actualization and Sunk Costs
It's an adventure. Lots of things happen. It's all too close to be sure of what parts are hints about what, except for Mr. Hat-and-Cloak, who we are to understand is most certainly Quirrell, hitting Hermione with a dictionary attack and turning her into someone less useful to HJPEV, I guess.
14
21
26
35
40
43-47
56-57
63
66
73-77
The prize was that Quirrell gets to teach students the killing curse.
Thank you. I've corrected the post.
Everyone seems to be holding the idiot ball with regards sending Snape to check Hermoine's room - this makes me suspect Dumbledore was behind the escalation.
Dumbledore just can know about Snape's schemes, and also want him to believe, that he doesn't know. If he consider Snape's game mostly harmless...
Is Harry's guess at the twins' prank on Rita the correct one, and by corollary, are we supposed to believe that Quirrelmort couldn't come up with a hypothesis that basic, and/or that it had been that easy for the twins to successfully brainwash an adult witch? (And on a meta level: was it worth it to make such a hubbub with such a supremely, well, boring answer?)
Harry leaps to that conclusion before hearing from Dumbledore how difficult they are to create. Even if that was the method, there is still the question of how they managed to accomplish it.
My hypothesis — as of several chapters ago — is that Dumbledore assisted in the Rita prank. He certainly had the motive, since he's playing the game against Lucius and Rita was Lucius's pawn. He also had the means (being incredibly powerful). Why hadn't he acted against her earlier? Because he hadn't been clever enough to think up a good way to get at her without inviting retaliation.
So how did he ever get included in the twins' plan?
Easy: he's in the habit of routinely reading their mind. Evidence for this lies in chapter 63: "It wasn't that the Headmaster had popped up out of nowhere and was staring at them with a stern expression. Dumbledore was always doing that." There's also weak evidence in chapter 12, where Dumbledore knows Harry wants to reformulate Quidditch (he could know via F&G via Ron). And in chapter 79, where he knows about the map.
So: The twins are walking around thinking about how to implement their plan against Rita, Dumbledore pops up out of nowhere looking for some good gossip, sees their plans, seizes the opportunity. The exact implementation could either be a memory charm (maybe trap her when she shows up at Mary's room looking for gossip about Amelia Bones, Dumbledore's ally), or else Dumbledore could actually pull off the acts Quirrell calls impossible.
Hold on - didn't Lawful Good Dumbledore make a big deal earlier in the Snape fight that he didn't invade student's minds?
He promised that Snape would not read student's minds.
Also, they aren't students. They're Fred and George.
Yes. That was the point of the whole incident.
The twins didn't brainwash Rita, they paid somebody to do it for them.
Why would Quirrel go to Fuyuki City in 1983? The 5th Holy Grail War takes place around 2003, with the 4th 10 years before during 1993. Assuming that Quirrel knew about the Grail Wars, he'd also have known about the 60 year cycles and would have little reason to arrive earlier. The earliest Zero relevant information happens eight years earlier in 1985. The closest event in TYPE MOON chronology would be Shiki's birth or the first case of Agonist Disorder. But the former is related more to Misaki town than Fuyuki city and the latter is from DDD... which only has an obscure, mostly unread translation!
So I'm probably overthinking the connection to Fuyuki; it's probably just a one off reference. It's that or the timeline was 'magically' shifted forward by 10 years, with the 5th grail war in 1993 and the 4th in 1983...
Doesn't look like there was an outbreak in Fuyuki. Besides, it's made clear that Quirrell never actually visited the place.
Which means that either (a) Kayneth Archibald el-Melloi will be replaced by Lucius Malfoy or (b) the dates need to be moved around.
Why is that clear? It's a powerfully magical place which might draw someone like Quirrel, and Quirrel's mistake was about whether he had a visa - so he could have gone but not known whether his later cover identity was officially registered or not.
If Grail Wars do occur in this continuity, I'd be very surprised if Riddle didn't visit their site when he was wandering the world looking for knowledge and power.
But I doubt that the reference is anything more than yet another shout-out.
This is a Harry Potter fic, not a crossover. It's a Shout Out, not an actual reference.
I admit, however, that if the dates were right I would totally be supporting one of the H&Cs being Heroic Spirit POTTER.
Am I the only one that's worried about Trelawney's prophecy? My vague recollection is that she's a joke of a diviner, but when you get right down to it, the fact that she predicted the same thing for each student in the class isn't such a huge likelihood burden if you consider that they are not necessarily independent events. That is to say, she may well be predicting the death of someone all the students know. Which would suggest a tragic ending to this story, probably, unless it's someone all the students Know-Who.
Or she's predicting a very imminent war.
Chap 79 - EY's added #40 on list to read.
Chap 40
I also find it impossible to believe that Hermione lost to Malfoy, she just beat him fair & square in battle. That certainly sounds like a false memory.
Draco is the better duelist at this point. Draco tired himself out by casting all those tough spells someone his age should not even be able to do, let alone do many times in a row. This was pointed out by Quirrel and Madame Bones, which makes it unlikely that it was just Draco rationalizing it.
Hermione is more magically powerful and also more clever, but when it comes to dueling, Draco still probably has the edge.
I wonder if Harry's lessons with Edward might have pushed him ahead? He did have a great proficiency for it in canon, as I recall.
They were pretty evenly matched during the Chapter 78 battle, and Draco was a bit drained from charming all the gloves, so it's by no means impossible that Draco beat Hermoine. I expect if they had 10 duels, each would win at least a few.
But it is true that our only sources regarding the outcome of the duel are Draco and Hermoine's memories along with Quirrell's testimony. If those memories were placed by Hat and Cloak, and if Hat and Cloak is Quirrel, then all of our information about what happened between midnight and 6.33am is based on what Quirrell wants us to know. The only bit that is confirmed by another party is that Draco was indeed at some point unconscious in the trophy room.
Maybe Malfoy's first self-defensive instinct was right? Maybe he really had worn himself down by casting all those spells on all those gloves, and that's the only reason he lost. Certainly he thought it was plausible enough that he could beat her that it was worth having a duel as a test.
Did anybody bothered to check previous spells on Hermione, Snape, and Quirrell wands? EDIT: Ok, we''re told Quirrell cast tens of spells since 06:33, still - they should check just to be sure.
Now it seems Harry should just kidnapp Hermione and hide here somewhere(And give her cloak to hide her from tracking spels).
"Professor Quirrell had cast tracking Charms because he had learned of a person with a motive to harm Mr. Malfoy. Professor Quirrell had refused to identify this person." hmm, why hadn't they used veritaserum on Quirrell to ask him who had the motive? Seems like usefull thing to know after murder attempt..
Also - Quirrell said he found out about Draco at 06:33 - just half an hour too late to use Time Turner and check what happened or to stop Hermione in the first place. Funny coincidence.
Quirrells suspect is Dumbledore, as has been clearly stated. He probably did not do it. Quirrell basically acted on a hunch and the Aurors do not really care about that.
Quirrell is, as an Occlumens, immune to veritaserum. Just like Harry.
I'm a little embarassed to ask this, but could someone please point me to where exactly in the story it's explained about Occlumency beating Veritaserum? I'm trying to find it, I think I managed to search out every instance of the word Veritaserum, and I only keep running into sentences that sound like it should already be obvious to the reader.
I can't for the life of me find anything earlier than Chapter 47's offhanded-seeming
which comes right before
I know the Occlumency > Veritaserum thing is canon, but it seems like it wasn't actually explained or foreshadowed in this fic until it became plot-relevant, which seems a little sloppy.
Hm... I can't find it in canon, either. HP Wiki cites Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix as the source, but I've scanned for all instances of verita and occlu and still no luck. Curses!
Chapter 79 is out!
My first thought was that Quirrell is behind this, and he is trying to strip away Harry's friends and isolate him. It's pretty clear that Mr. Hat and Cloak is Quirrell (I can argue this elsewhere if you disagree), and we know that Mr H&C is behind Hermione's recent brainwashing.
The problem is that this plot ends with Quirrell blowing his cover. We can guess that Quirrell cast those spells protecting Draco in chapter 40, after learning that Lord Malfoy had threatened to give his entire game away as revenge against Harry should his son come to harm. So Quirrell was protecting Draco to prevent anyone (Dumbledore?) from killing Draco in order to turn Lord Malfoy against Harry. But Quirrell can't tell anyone else this. He has no good reason to have those spells on Draco. Quirrell is a clever guy; I'm sure he could have come up with some excuse to make sure Draco was found OTHER than "Oh, I just happened to be watching over this one student with spells since last January". He could have gotten past this point in the story still free of suspicion. So why didn't he? How does this development benefit Quirrell?
My ideas so far: 1: Quirrell blew his cover on purpose, knowing he would be questioned by Scrimgeour. He is going to take over Scrimgeour's mind in the next chapter, knowing that Scrimgeour is an important man in government. And we already know from the Canon that Scrimgeour would get elected if a crises like the reappearance of Voldemort took place. And we already know Quirrell has plans for creating a fake Voldemort crises. Harry is too young to run the country, but Scrimgeour could make for a good front for a while, while Harry builds up his own popularity.
Result: Harry loses his friends and comes to depend more on Quirrell, Quirrell gains time alone with someone he can use to create a foothold in the government.
Problems: Getting arrested seems to be an overly-elaborate and dangerous method for getting some alone time with a Auror.
2: Snape is behind this most recent plot twist. The second appearance of Mr. H&C (when Hermione is mindraped) is actually Snape. If, for some reason, Snape knew of Quirrell's protective spells then he might have done the mind rape and arranged the duel, knowing that Quirrell would intervene. Which would result in Quirrell being caught.
Result: Quirrell, the only person who know's Snape's secret, is discredited, Harry, who Snape hates, loses his best friends, and finally Draco, who Snape is responsible for, stops hanging out with a loser mudblood, and with Harry, who Lord Malfoy fears. Problems: I was really sure Mr. H&C was Quirrell every time.
3: Too many intersecting plots = a giant mess that no one could anticipate.
My biggest question right now is what Snape is up too. We've had a lot of screen time with Quirrell so I think I understand what he wants pretty well, but Snape's anti-bullying campaign doesn't make much sense. All that work, just to make Hermione hate Draco? I don't know. But I really doubt Snape gone to all that effort, and hurt the reputation of his own house, just because he hates bullies.
I will be very shocked if this ends with Quirrell killing a bunch of Aurors. Quirrell KNOWS that doing this would destroy his relationship (such as it is) with Harry. Quirrell has built up Harry for a purpose; he isn't going to throw that away. Nor, I suspect, does he have any intention of going to prison. Most likely he will just disappear after the next chapter, and leave a bunch of people scratching their heads.
Quirrell.
It's not just about him not bothering to check whether he had a visa to Fuyuki city.
It's about him always having claimed to be a Slytherin.
Despite actually being... a Ravenclaw?
That doesn't sound like the kind of claim you could get away with it, and Quirrell should know that, but he still makes it, and... gets away with it?
Doesn't any current Hogwarts student have parents/relatives/family friends who knew Quirrell from his time back at school?
And it's blindingly, blitheringly obvious by this point that Quirrell is H&C. Too obvious.
Why would Quirrell orchestrate this in a way that ends in him being interrogated by the DMLE? Compare with his attempted Dementation of Harry.
In fact, the same thing would apply even if he weren't H&C. I'd expect him to have come up with a better way of handling it. One with more plausible deniability.
Conclusion: Quirrell planned to be interrogated by the DMLE. Quirrell planned to have his cover blown. Why? I haven't the slightest idea.
I still don't know what to make of the Ravenclaw thing, though.
Edit: Just checked to see if Quirrell had actually claimed to be in Slytherin instead of just implying it. Yes, he had.
Chapter 16.
Edit: Of course he planned to be interrogated; he couldn't afford to be inside Hogwarts when Dumbledore began searching for Tom Riddle.
I still don't know why he'd want to blow his cover, though.
The line about having been sorted into Ravenclaw could be as fake as the Fuyuki City thing, Scrimgeour's play. Quirrell's apparent failure could just be a way of getting temporarily detained, while Dumbedore's looking for Riddle and Harry wants his help. His cover could actually be pretty solid, so he'd just shrug off Scrimgeour's suspicions once it's time to go.
Speculation on the Slytherin/Ravenclaw issue: Quirrell is a double impostor. He's Voldemort possessing a Slytherin (name unknown) and pretending to be that Slytherin pretending to be a Ravenclaw named Quirinus Quirrell. Dumbledore knows about one level of the masquerade, and accepts the explanation that the Slytherin of unknown name is a private person. Quirinus Quirrell may be an entirely constructed identity, although that would make it less likely for him to have failed to remember some of the details of it under interrogation.
Voldemort himself seems like a pretty artificial persona. I think it's better to think of both Voldemort and Quirrell as Riddle's inventions, not directly related to one another.
But why would he go out and tell all his students that he was a Slytherin? That's effectively admitting that he's an impostor.
(Unless, of course, it is a purely constructed identity. In which case even the records about his time at Hogwarts would've had to be fabricated. In which case... Why would he pick Ravenclaw rather than Slytherin?)
I am noticeably confused. I think the simplest explanation for this mixup about Quirrel's house is that EY forgot that he'd said he was in Slytherin earlier.
I don't think he's worried by the Marauder's Map. If he knew it could expose him he'd have already taken it from Fred and George.
Of course, there is no possible way that he does not have his exit from Hogwarts entirely planned out. But it's still April, so I don't think he plans on leaving quite yet.
He may not know of the Map's existence. He may be afraid of Dumbledore having some, possibly unknown to Quirrel, spells (or Hogwarts wards) for locating people by their names.
But no doubt Dumbledore will hold on to the map for when Quirrell returns. But seeing as he may well be (intentionally) blowing his cover, that may not be for some time.
An important hint: "Obliviation cannot be detected by any known means, but only a Professor could have cast that spell upon a student without alarm from the Hogwarts wards."
This means no Lucius, no Sirius, no Lupin, etc.
Very Interesting. Are we certain he doesn't just mean that Hogwarts only detects student's spells? Probably not.
Do you think individuals who were professors in the past but are no longer might not be detected?
If only Zabini had spoken more with his older cousin, he might have remembered that five years ago, Defense was taught by Professor Hat-and-Cloak.
More seriously, if Dumbledore thought to make sure no one could bring the same Dementor back the next day, he probably wouldn't neglect to revoke, say, Slughorn's permissions.
I'm a bit confused about what punishment Hermione is facing. Dumbledore said that Lucius's proposal is that Hermione's blood debt to Draco be repaid, but I don't know what that means except that Dumbledore also says that she will not be killed or put in Azkaban. Fred and George heard a rumor that she's going to be forced to be Draco's slave, which sounds like a plausible interpretation for "repaying a blood debt." If that's true, then I don't see what the big rush about unframing Hermione is for. It would make more sense in that case to focus on getting Draco out of his predicament, and then convince Draco to forgive the debt later. The only way I can think of to save Draco is to memory-charm him into believing him that he had not been helping Hermione out of altruism (e.g. to court Harry, which seems like a perfectly reasonable explanation). On the other hand, this particular strategy might not be practical since they would have to restructure enough of Draco's memories that Lucius wouldn't get suspicious, which could take forever, and they likely don't have long until Lucius gets Draco under Veritaserum. And they'd have to undo it afterwards.
The word "slave" isn't in the text. When I read their statement, I had the horrifying thought that maybe I knew where house elves came from...
Wand-Snapping will definitely be involved, so time is of the essence (Although I suppose Dumbledore could repair it if the pieces aren't destroyed).
Perhaps Lucius will demand all her memory of Wizardry be removed and she be sentenced to muggle life.
It has been said that Hagrid would just be allowed to get a new wand, so if Hermione's wand is snapped she could later do the same.
Well, first... I don't like bringing this up, but Draco brought up rape waaaay back in the first few chapters we see him in. Probably not relevant at this age, but...
Aside from this, Hermione will still be ruined as wizard - wand snapped, remember? And with Lucius back into the picture getting him to release Hermione would be a nightmare.
In Chapter 79, Dumbledore speculates that Hermione's supposed attempted murder of Draco was a move by Voldemort to remove two of Harry's allies.
I wonder if it might rather be a move to turn Harry (even more) against Wizarding society by exposing the massive flaws of their justice system. (Of course, it could be both at once.)
End of Chapter 80: This result has come about.
Quirrel can turn Harry instantly and permanently against Dumbledore (edit: though not Wizarding society in general), any day he likes, by telling him that the Philosopher's stone exists and Dumbledore is allowing Flamel to hoard it (and the method for creating more) for himself.
No stronger method is needed. Harry would declare Dumbledore his enemy on the spot.
That could turn him against Dumbledore (and Flamel), but I don't see how it would turn him against Wizarding society. I doubt most wizards give Flamel or the Stone a second thought, if they even know he/it exists.
It's also notable that the revelation of the existence of Nurmengard, which imprisons wizards without using Dementors, did not really turn him any more against Dumbledore or Wizarding society.
In canon, at least, people know about Flamel, from Dumbledore's Chocolate Frog card if nothing else. The Stone's not a secret either, although it's not common knowledge.
You're right.
Would he? That might make Harry plot against Dumbledore, but it wouldn't incite the hate that Quirrell seems to desire from him.
Besides, I'm certain Quirrell doesn't want Harry to create a utopia, and thus wants him in the dark just as much as Dumbledore.
No hate for people who are deliberately keeping cheap immortality from the world's population? Who are directly responsible for all age-and-disease death in the last eight centuries? I think Harry can muster a little hate where it's really appropriate.
Harry would hate Dumbledore but he wouldn't succeed in getting his hands on the Stone, not if Voldemort can't. So, no utopia.
You are making assumptions about what how much immortality the Philosopher's Stone allows. For all you know it may allow e.g. a maximum of 7 people immortality, be only creatable once per five hundred years, and/or require the heart of an adult dragon per each person given immortality.
Revealing the presence of such a device (not cheap immortality, but rare immortality) might well cause more loss of life in the pursuit of its possession than it would cause otherwise.
Ofcourse Harry would still be furious at Dumbledore for not analyzing the stone in any way he can in attempts to find a way to mass-produce it or atleast its effects.
Least convenient world apples, but I'd bet Dumbledore and Flamel haven't been looking for cheaper ways to create more Stones, because it just isn't their goal. (And they're already in trouble because they have to guard the one stone from Voldemort.) If Harry knew, well, I'd bet his eyes would be ice and his voice would be distant darkness and... er, I mean, he'd go Librarian-poo crazy.
Hating Dumbledore for guarding the stone is no more rational than hating theists for trying to save everyone's souls. The headmaster's heart is in the right place, and while Harry might become extremely frustrated by him he would still seek to show Dumbledore the light, not to destroy him.
He would - he should - be willing to destroy him if it brings him any closer to possession of the Stone. Of course he probably can't destroy Dumbledore so it's a moot point.
Hating him is probably counterproductive anyway. I retract that part of what I said, it was wrong.
I'm fairly certain that could be accomplished just by giving him a book on wizarding law. So probably not a factor in H&C's plotting.
I think Quirrell would believe that seeing one's best friend imprisoned/subjugated/otherwise punished unfairly would have more of an effect than a book, even on Harry. I think he would be right, too.
It turns out, after a few minutes' contemplation, there was a previous discussion between Quirrell and Harry lurking in the background of this thought. From Chapter 60, The Stanford Prison Experiment, Pt 10: (emphasis added)
Harry didn't need a friend in Azkaban to be horrified at it, but visiting it had much more of an impact on him than just hearing about it.
I was hoping to post that quote. Kudos for getting there first.
It is more involving when it is personal.
Maybe for most people, but Harry didn't need a friend in Azkaban to appreciate it's horror.
He needed to visit it and hear the tortured captives crying out in anguish before he really appreciated its horror. Before he visited, he said "wow, that's awful, somebody should do something". After he visited he swore to the phoenix to dedicate his life to smashing it.
If this is a murder-mystery arc, then Quirrell is the obligatory Red Herring. He had motive, means and opportunity, and all three were revealed in the first part of 6-part arc. The laws of fiction demand it not be this easy.
Yes, that could be exactly what Eliezer wants us to think, but in the end I think Quirrell being responsible would just be too normal, even if suspicion is temporarily diverted from him by making him a false red herring.
I think the point of this arc is not to leave you wanting for complicated answers to obvious-seeming questions, but simply to keep you on the edge of your seat waiting to see how things play out. It's about knocking down dominoes, not setting them up.
Minor typo at the end of 78, repeated at the beginning of 79:
Actual speculation: what did Dumbledore know or suspect when he hired Quirrell?
What exactly was Dumbledore aware of? Merely that 'Quirrell' may have travelled without a visa (I guess this is illegal), or that he was an impostor? If the latter, why would Dumbledore hire him?
But if Dumbledore wasn't aware that Quirrell is an impostor, then Quirrell has made at least one foolish slip. During the interrogation, Scrimgeour says
But way back in Chapter 16, Quirrell says
The magical world is a small world, Hogwarts is a small school, at least some parents of current Hogwarts students would have remembered that Quirrell was in Ravenclaw not Slytherin. I'm guessing this is an inadvertent mistake by Eliezer.
I brought the same thing up here.
I doubt Eliezer would forget that the major spokesperson of Slytherin in his fic is... well, Slytherin.
There's something else going on here.
Because Q is someone very good at what he is about to teach who does not want to have his identity public. Dumblodore wants a decent teacher - as has been pointed out many times - and is willing to put up with a lot to get him. Now weather Dumbledore knows the true identity of Q is a different question.
I believe Dumbledore would have been a professor of the real Quirrell, so he must know it's an imposter he's hired. I suspect Quirrell fed him some convincing lie or another about his true identity.
My reading of the visa thing was that the Auror made it up on the spot to confirm that Quirrell had no idea of what trips he had taken in the past, and is therefore an impostor. Although I don't understand why Quirrell, if impersonating someone, would fail to look up these simple facts.
Quirrell is smart, but he's not omnipotent. He's had so many lives, he doesn't even consider any of them to be his true persona.
Quirrell is mentally disciplined, but it's possible that he could have simply forgotten or gotten facts mixed up, trying to hold so many personas in his head at one time.
Chapter 79:
I think we're supposed to be able to figure this one out. My mental model of Eliezer says he thinks he's given us more than enough hints, and we have a week to wait despite it being a short, high tension chapter. He makes a big deal out of how Harry only has thirty hours, which isn't enough; he gives us a week, and a lot of information Harry doesn't have.
Who benefits from isolating Harry from both of his friends, and/or making him do something stupid to protect Hermione in front of the most powerful people in the Wizarding World?
Evidence against Quirrell as Hat-and-Cloak: Apart from everything that's already been discussed, he's been trying to strengthen Harry. He chose Draco and Hermione for the armies knowing that the likely outcome would be them getting closer (especially when he set them up against Harry).
Evidence for Quirrell as Hat-and-Cloak: Apart from what has already been discussed, he seemed very interested when Harry mentioned Lucius's threat to set aside everything to protect Draco. And there's that line in the most recent author's note:
Which implies we're overthinking this and the obvious answer is the right one.
Quirrell conveniently rescuing Draco after seven hours makes sense if we assume he's also the one who almost killed him.
Evidence I can't sort: Quirrell's admission during interrogation can't have been an accident, and doesn't seem to serve his interests whether he's Hat-and-Cloak or not. If he is, he presumable wants to isolate Harry so he can talk him into stage 2 of the plan - but for that, he needs to be at Hogwarts or otherwise have access to Harry. If he's not Hat-and-Cloak, there's not much reason for him to tie himself up in the Ministry.
Unless he doesn't want Harry to be able to contact him and he wants to have a plausible reason for being unreachable?
I think this makes me update more toward "Quirrell is Hat-and-Cloak," but I'm not convinced.
Harry isn't stupid, he has to realize that getting Hermione and Draco out of the way obviously benefits the defense professor. And Quirrell would know this, and not want to make Harry think he's someone who would ruin an innocent 12-year-old girl's life. Their next conversation is going to be interesting.
Comment on 79, which was just posted 45 minutes ago, so go read it.
Well, 79 certainly funneled the story a bit. Answered lots of questions and a clear path forward. I was kind of hoping for it to end like, "At the end of a hallway, the Defense Professor walked out of the newly empty room." <the end> That part could still be told in the next chapter, of course...
Speaking of funnelling, am I remembering correctly that Eliezer recently said that the story was past the halfway point, or is my memory misattributing that statement?
Well, then. I'm certainly glad I didn't wait until after Chapter 79 to register at Less Wrong and post all my theories about Santa Claus and S and H&C!
My theory is that Lucius trumped up these charges against Hermione entirely independent of the midnight duel. He was furious that Hermione defeated Draco in combat, and this is his retaliation.
I doubt that Hermione attended the duel; or, if she did attend it, I doubt that anything bad happened.
My theory does not explain why Draco isn't at breakfast. So maybe my theory is wrong.
I am confused about why H&C wanted Hermione to be defeated by Draco during the big game when Lucius was watching. If you believe H&C is Quirrell (and I do): did Quirrell go to all that trouble just to impress Lucius with how his son was doing? That seems like an awful risk for not much reward.
...Followup: Holy crap! I know exactly one person who wants Hermione to be defeated by Draco when Lucius is watching. Could H&C be Dumbledore?
Why do you think H&C wants Hermione to be defeated by Draco?
(I think you may have misspoken but since you said it twice I'm not sure)
Chapter 25, Fred and George talking about the Marauder's Map, which is supposed to show all people in Hogwarts by name:
The intermittent one is probably Quirrell, going in and out of zombie mode. But what could be visibly wrong with the other one? My theory is that, unlike all the other dots on the Marauder's Map, one of them doesn't have a name. Who could that be?
I hypothesize that this is Mr. Hat and Cloak. That would mean it's not Quirrell and not anyone the Weasleys would pay much attention to, either. The map must get the names it displays from somewhere, and its reliability in doing so suggests that it gets them from people's minds. My hypothesis is that to appear on the map without a name, you'd have to (a) not be known by name and present appearance to anyone whose mind the map can read, and (b) be an occlumens.
My guess is, the intermittent one is H&C taking the appearance (and name, on the map) of students who are elsewhere to walk among the children, listening to rumours, maybe even talking to them. I'm going to assume he can disappear as well as change shape when out of sight, otherwise it would be too easy to track him down; plus, that's why it's 'intermittent'.
The last chapter to me indicates strongly that the glitch is Voldemort's spirit. Now you might ask, 'wouldn't George & Fred be scared witless by Voldemort appearing on their map occasionally and maybe even report it?' But Voldemort is a pseudonym and the spirit would show up as 'Tom Riddle', as Dumbledore's PoV indicates (notice Dumbledore has no problem saying 'Voldemort' in other contexts, but when he uses the Map, he asks for 'Tom Riddle').
Canon indicates that Voldemort's origin is a secret: Dumbledore spends years digging out the link and the diary in Chamber of Secrets seems to think it's telling Harry something good when it explains the anagram 'Tom Marvolo Riddle' = 'I am Lord Voldemort' or whatever. So the twins wouldn't make the link.
What probably happened is they noticed the glitch - maybe it claimed Riddle was in the same room as them at some point? - and investigated carefully, not finding anyone where the Map said a Riddle was. Perhaps they did some more digging and turned up Riddle's old school history as Head Boy etc. Naturally, they conclude the Map is buggy: 'old students from half a century ago are showing up! Bugs in the Map are not good!'
Perhaps the twins were very careful with the Map, as would be appropriate for illicit tools of mischief, and never used it while they were in the same room as anyone else. It would be dangerous to do so, and their mischievous uses for it could easily work around such a restriction.
That, greater concerns, and a little bit of narrative/circumstance, could keep them from ever laying eyes on the people that corresponded to their glitches.
Well, yes, so imagine their shock when after the usual precautions they solemnly swear and see a third person listed in the room with them.
The Disillusionment Charm is commonly known, yes?
That wouldn't be mysterious, I don't think. It would be shocking and frightening and frankly it ought to have happened at some point and the twins ought to have lost their Map because of it.
Or maybe they take precautions that would protect them against all the hiding tricks they know about and, you're right, still encountered an extra name now and then. Still, I have a bit set that suggests the narrative would be more specific about that case, though I can't justify it.
Intermittent one is either people using time-turners, Weasley's don;t know about time-turners, so they think it's showing one person in two places or If it showed two names for the same person, that might be an intermittent bug too, ie Quirrel/Riddle based on who he is at the moment.
Permanent bug might be someone floating in the castle who they know shouldn't be there, perhaps Pettigrew, or Sirius, or someone who should be there but isn't - ie Quirrell being unplottable.
Dumbledore & Snape are known Occlumens, but they show up on the map just fine.
In canon, the bug that Harry saw was Pettigrew on the map but he wasn't actually there in reality.
I don't think either of the glitches are Time-Turners. Time-Turners have (presumably) been used regularly in Hogwarts since the twins arrived, and it's made clear that these glitches are new:
Also, bear in mind that the official story is that the time turners are used to treat "spontaneous duplication"; if the map occasionally registers multiple versions of a "spontaneous duplication" sufferer, that would be written off as a feature, not a bug (just not the feature that the twins think it is).
I think it's likely that Harry is one of those errors. We he goes dark-side his name might change.
I don't think George would describe a glitch where someone's name changes as being "same as ever".
I mean that he might be the intermittent one instead of Quirrell. If maps like these really do show one's true name, as with Scabbers and Crouch in Canon, then Quirrell probably knows about them and made himself generally unplottable, not just intermittently.
So, what kind of "miracle" will Harry produce for the next battle (assuming for a moment that Hermione is going to be released, and there will be a next battle)?
I thought that maybe he finds a way to learn wordless magic, thus having a huge advantage since the others don't know what spells will be coming. But then I realized that it's not even necessary -- in the heat of the battle it's enough not to shout the incantation, whispering it will mean that the opponent can't hear it.
It's a simple enough thing that I wonder why none of Harry, Hermione, and Draco seem to consider it.
At least I haven't found any indication that shouting the words of a spell make it more powerful.
It seems to me that potion making is still a clear advantage that Harry has over his rivals - they aren't going to discover the principal at the heart of potion making. At the moment, trying to invest additional effort in making more useful sorts of potions and or hiding the preparations better seems to be the easiest marginal increase in chaos' power.
Strategy, like markets, is anti-inductive. As Edward Luttwak says somewhere, "all success tends to failure". When you win a battle or a war, your enemies and onlookers concerned that you may turn on them will learn from what you did, and look for counters, while you will be tempted to rely on what worked. But if you do that, you are attributing your success to the wrong place: on what you did instead of on the relationship between what you did and what your enemies did.
Harry hasn't repeated himself yet: to all new challenges he has found new responses.
Sure, but I think it would be better to think of potion making at a very high level in strategy. Harry used transfiguration in battle after battle and managed to win. Do you think of that as not innovating? I think there is a similar relationship between ball bearings and skateboards and suits of armor in the transfiguration category and potion of sunlight and whatever comes next in the potion making category.
If I understood correctly, Harry didn't invent a new potion, he found it one of the books that Flitwick recommended. And if you assume that Draco still has Snape's support, it won't be easy for Harry to find more powerful potions than Draco.
It also seems clear that the teachers involved think that inventing new potions is far too dangerous with Harry's current level of experience (which is basically none). That's why I don't think that more potions will be the way to Chaos' success. At least not the critical factor.