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Giles comments on Conjunction fallacy and probabilistic risk assessment. - Less Wrong
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Comments (9)
I think I agree with everything here. Would it be fair to summarize this as:
Yea... well with math in general, you can quite effectively mislead people by computing some one out of context value which grossly contradicts their fallacious reasoning. Then the fallacious reasoning is still present and still doing strong, and something else gives in to explain that number.