XiXiDu comments on A taxonomy of Oracle AIs - Less Wrong
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Every time I read something like this I think, "Wow okay, from a superficially point of view this sounds like a logical possibility. But is it physically possible? If so, is it economically and otherwise feasible? What evidence do you have?".
You use math like "Solomonoff induction" as if it described part of the territory rather than being symbols and syntactic rules, scribbles on paper. To use your terminology and heuristics, I think that the Kolmogorov complexity of "stumble upon and fail to sandbox an Unfriendly AI" is extremely high.
I just noticed that even Ben Goertzel, who is apparently totally hooked on the possibility of superhuman intelligence, agrees with me...