It helps, perhaps, that my parents didn't force some crazy literalistic theism down my throat but rather tended to do things like tell me that I should keep an open mind and never stop asking "why?" the way most people do for some reason. Its not like I suddenly starting taking the verbal/theoretical content of my brain seriously in an act of parental defiance and accidentally took up adulterer stoning because that had been laying around in my head in an unexamined way. I was never encouraged to stone adulterers. I was raised on a farm in the redwoods by parents without college degrees and sent off to academia naively thinking it worked the way that it does in stories about Science And Progress. If I have such confusions remaining, my guess is that I take epistemology too seriously and imagine that other people might be helped by being better at it :-P
The stoning adulterers part is an extreme hypothetical example of taking a Christian meme to its logical conclusion. As PhilGoetz mentioned in the post, secular memes can also have this problem. The same even applies to some of the 'rationalist' memes around here.
I would like to ask for help on how to use expected utility maximization, in practice, to maximally achieve my goals.
As a real world example I would like to use the post 'Epistle to the New York Less Wrongians' by Eliezer Yudkowsky and his visit to New York.
How did Eliezer Yudkowsky compute that it would maximize his expected utility to visit New York?
It seems that the first thing he would have to do is to figure out what he really wants, his preferences1, right? The next step would be to formalize his preferences by describing it as a utility function and assign a certain number of utils2 to each member of the set, e.g. his own survival. This description would have to be precise enough to figure out what it would mean to maximize his utility function.
Now before he can continue he will first have to compute the expected utility of computing the expected utility of computing the expected utility of computing the expected utility3 ... and also compare it with alternative heuristics4.
He then has to figure out each and every possible action he might take, and study all of their logical implications, to learn about all possible world states he might achieve by those decisions, calculate the utility of each world state and the average utility of each action leading up to those various possible world states5.
To do so he has to figure out the probability of each world state. This further requires him to come up with a prior probability for each case and study all available data. For example, how likely it is to die in a plane crash, how long it would take to be cryonically suspended from where he is in case of a fatality, the crime rate and if aliens might abduct him (he might discount the last example, but then he would first have to figure out the right level of small probabilities that are considered too unlikely to be relevant for judgment and decision making).
I probably miss some technical details and got others wrong. But this shouldn't detract too much from my general request. Could you please explain how Less Wrong style rationality is to be applied practically? I would also be happy if you could point out some worked examples or suggest relevant literature. Thank you.
I also want to note that I am not the only one who doesn't know how to actually apply what is being discussed on Less Wrong in practice. From the comments:
I can't help but agree.
P.S. If you really want to know how I feel about Less Wrong then read the post 'Ontological Therapy' by user:muflax.
1. What are "preferences" and how do you figure out what long-term goals are stable enough under real world influence to allow you to make time-consistent decisions?
2. How is utility grounded and how can it be consistently assigned to reflect your true preferences without having to rely on your intuition, i.e. pull a number out of thin air? Also, will the definition of utility keep changing as we make more observations? And how do you account for that possibility?
3. Where and how do you draw the line?
4. How do you account for model uncertainty?
5. Any finite list of actions maximizes infinitely many different quantities. So, how does utility become well-defined?